To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. Although, when we looked at China Shenhua Energy (HKG:1088), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on China Shenhua Energy is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.16 = CN¥88b ÷ (CN¥652b - CN¥96b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

So, China Shenhua Energy has an ROCE of 16%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Oil and Gas industry average of 6.9% it's much better.

View our latest analysis for China Shenhua Energy

Above you can see how the current ROCE for China Shenhua Energy compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for China Shenhua Energy .

What Can We Tell From China Shenhua Energy's ROCE Trend?

There hasn't been much to report for China Shenhua Energy's returns and its level of capital employed because both metrics have been steady for the past five years. It's not uncommon to see this when looking at a mature and stable business that isn't re-investing its earnings because it has likely passed that phase of the business cycle. So don't be surprised if China Shenhua Energy doesn't end up being a multi-bagger in a few years time. On top of that you'll notice that China Shenhua Energy has been paying out a large portion (73%) of earnings in the form of dividends to shareholders. These mature businesses typically have reliable earnings and not many places to reinvest them, so the next best option is to put the earnings into shareholders pockets.

The Key Takeaway

In a nutshell, China Shenhua Energy has been trudging along with the same returns from the same amount of capital over the last five years. Investors must think there's better things to come because the stock has knocked it out of the park, delivering a 243% gain to shareholders who have held over the last five years. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.

China Shenhua Energy does come with some risks though, we found 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those can't be ignored...

While China Shenhua Energy may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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