The ASX 200 is being tipped to end its five-day rally through Thursday today, with futures down 0.38% to 8,318 points as investors brace for retail sales figures (out just before lunchtime today) that may finally kill rate cut hopes.

The 31.8pt drop comes after U.S. stocks battled through topsy-turvy Wednesday trade before Wall Street closes for 24 hours to mourn former President Jimmy Carter.

Like Oz markets, Wall Street got skittish after economic releases: For the U.S. it was the Federal Reserve’s December minutes. Although Jerome Powell’s speech – and the rate cut they lauded – had originally hyped markets at the time, the tone in the full transcript sounds like there’ll be fewer cuts in 2025, not more.

The Nasdaq was the only index actually in the red though, dropping 0.3% of its value.

Back home, it’s all eyes on Australia’s November retail sales numbers; those ABS stats will be in investor hands by 11.30am Sydney time today.

Early sentiment has been that retail sales growth hit 1% through November. Should that prove to be the case, it would mark the single biggest increase since January 2024 when it jumped from -1.9% up to a flat one percent.

At the risk of mentioning rate cuts one too many times, there are fears these numbers could be the final nail in the coffin for any chops before the middle of the year.

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) should move positively today through the downturned market though after the mining giant got the green light from U.S. regulators regarding its headlining $5.67 billion Arcadium Lithium (ASX:LTM) buy.

(There is a wait still for Rio/Arcadium as Aus, Canada, and Italy check the deal.)

Hazer Group (ASX:HZR) got good news on its long-pending Japanese patent plans this morning too; this sets up a pipeline to produce “low-cost, low-carbon” hydrogen.

Not so happy a day for Star Entertainment (ASX:SGR) with the troubled casino heavyweight blowing through its cash as trade difficulties roll on.

Looking at forex, the Aussie dollar is buying 62.1 US cents.

To commodities, which are in the greenback,

Iron Ore has bumped up to $96.75 a tonne in Singapore,

Brent Crude is trading at $76.13,

Gold is trading at $2,670 per ounce, and, 

US natgas futures are at $3.68 per gigajoule, mostly spurred highly (and up 6.88%) through winter storms in the U.S.

That’s Market Open, I’m Isaac McIntyre, stick with us for HotCopper’s Market Update.