Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Friday reiterated its buy rating on the shares of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO, CNQ) with a C$58.00 price target after the country's No.1 oil producer released 2025 guidance.

"CNQ's FY'25 outlook published yesterday morning showed guidance in-line with expectations largely across the board, making for a neutral trading day. The $6.15B all-in capex guide compares to TPHe/Street $6.0B, with the delta owing to the $135MM that supplements operational spending and will be targeted for carbon capture ($90MM) and an office move ($45MM). On production, total volumes were guided to 1,510-1,555mboepd, bounding consensus and comparing to TPHe/Street 1,552/1,534, with liquids guidance of 1,106-1,142mboepd vs. TPHe/Street 1,136/1,132 and gas guidance of 2,425-2,480mmcf/d vs. TPHe/Street 2,496/2,415. Various highlights from the conference call included that (i) a majority of the +170mboepd growth plan is acquisition-related (~120mboepd from the CVX transactions, with a large chunk of the balance attributed to an additional acquisition in the works in Q1), (ii) the company's gas drilling program for 2025 is based almost entirely on liquids-rich production, (iii) a strong share buyback program remains part the 2025 plan, and (iv) management remains constructive on Pathways progress with the CCS component of the budget related to engineering both on Pathways and across the existing asset base (Horizon, Scotford, thermal)," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.

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