MW Cinemark's stock is dubbed a top pick amid 'compelling' slate of 2025 movies

By James Rogers

The recent pullback in Cinemark's stock could present a buying opportunity, says Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey

Cinemark Holdings Inc. is entering 2025 boosted by box-office wins and is well positioned for a "compelling" slate of movies this year, according to analyst firm Benchmark.

"We expect [Cinemark] to report fiscal [fourth-quarter] results in mid-February and have raised our estimates following strong domestic box office performance, driven by Wicked, Moana 2, Gladiator II, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, and Venom: The Last Dance," Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey wrote in a note released Friday. "With solid revenue and margin growth opportunities ahead, we identify [Cinemark] as a top [entertainment and digital media] pick for 2025 and see the recent pullback as a buying opportunity."

Cinemark shares $(CNK)$ have risen 123.4% in the last 12 months but are down 3.7% in 2025.

Related: AMC and Cinemark rode 'incredible' Black Friday box office surge, research finds

Hickey described 2024 as "a year of surprising resilience" that delivered box-office results of $8.56 billion. While this was down 3.9% from 2023, it still surpassed expectations, according to the analyst. Hickey estimates that 2025 box office will be $9.5 billion, a notable 11% increase from 2024 "driven by a compelling slate of films across various genres." These include director James Gunn's "Superman," Marvel's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps," "Mission Impossible - The Final Reckoning," starring Tom Cruise, and sequels "Jurassic World: Rebirth," "Wicked: For Good," "Zootopia 2" and Walt Disney Co.'s $(DIS)$ highly anticipated live-action "Snow White."

"Other notable films include Wolf Man, Marvel's ensemble Thunderbolts, the live-action adaptation of How to Train Your Dragon, the John Wick spinoff Ballerina, and unique projects like Mickey 17," Hickey said. "Among the expected standout releases, James Cameron's Avatar: Fire and Ash, promises to captivate audiences with groundbreaking technology and storytelling. Brad Pitt's F1, blends Hollywood star power with real Formula 1 racing, featuring appearances by professional drivers, offering an authentic and adrenaline-fueled experience."

Benchmark maintained its buy rating and $40 price target for Cinemark.

Related: Cinemark at 'inflection point,' well-placed for postpandemic recovery, Benchmark says

Cinemark, like rival AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. $(AMC)$, enjoyed a Black Friday box-office boost from blockbusters "Wicked," "Gladiator 2," and "Moana 2," according to recent U.S. foot-traffic data from analytics company Placer.ai.

-James Rogers

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January 10, 2025 12:33 ET (17:33 GMT)

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