Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Kinross Gold (KGC) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.32 a share, just 28 days from its upcoming earnings release on February 12, 2025.

By taking the percentage difference between the $0.32 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.23 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Kinross Gold has an Earnings ESP of 40.15%.

KGC is part of a big group of Basic Materials stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Hecla Mining (HL) as well.

Slated to report earnings on February 12, 2025, Hecla Mining holds a #1 (Strong Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.06 a share 28 days from its next quarterly update.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hecla Mining is $0.04, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 50%.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, KGC and HL could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Hecla Mining Company (HL) : Free Stock Analysis Report

To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

Zacks Investment Research