BUZZ-Swedish December inflation confirmed below Riksbank call

Reuters
01-15

Jan 15 (Reuters) - Sweden's crown reacts positively to the latest domestic inflation data, which came in clearly below the Riksbank's estimate and could force the central bank to re-focus on economic growth.

The December CPIF inflation measure rose 1.5% year-on-year, unchanged from last week's flash return and in line with the Reuters poll consensus. However, the Riksbank adopted a more cautious stance regarding inflation and had forecast a 1.8% rise in prices.

An apparent shift in focus away from growth and back to the inflation threat within the Riksbank's Dec. 19 policy statement unsettled the crown and underpinned a EUR/SEK recovery from levels around 11.4300 to 11.5569. The SEK did stage a recovery to 11.4140 in early January but returned to weaker levels in recent sessions.

Swedish resource utilisation is low, and the labour market remains weak, which argues for possibly two more rate cuts, in January and May. However, the central bank has been less optimistic than analysts on the inflation outlook.

The daily Ichimoku cloud chart suggests EUR/SEK could pan out sideways for the remainder of January. Cloud base support is at 11.4778 and is joined by the 10-day moving average, daily kijun line and 200-day moving average at 11.4928, 11.4870 and 11.4839, respectively. The cloud top and a key 50% Fibonacci level provide resistance at 11.5620. For more click on

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(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

((peter.stoneham@thomsonreuters.com))

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