By Nimesh Vora and Dharamraj Dhutia
MUMBAI, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Foreign inflows that were expected into Indian government bonds over the next two-and-a-half months will fall short of expectations, stymied by a currency that is repeatedly hitting lifetime lows and Treasury yields that are hovering at multi-month highs, investors said
These inflows, according to market estimates, were expected to be between $6 billion and $8 billion through the end of March, which is when the bonds' scheduled monthly weightage increase in JPMorgan's emerging market debt index ends.
Given the pressure on the rupee, rising U.S. yields and the Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish stance, the inflows will be less than that, Morgan Stanley said in a note.
The investment bank pointed out that most of the funds that track the index are active managers and are not bound to add positions on the index rebalancing date.
Inflows have already slowed considerably. Total inflows into bonds under the FAR (Fully Accessible Route) since November are at just 27 billion rupees ($323 million), which is a fraction of the 420 billion rupees received in the prior three months.
US YIELDS JUMP, RUPEE SLUMPS
Since Trump's victory, the 10-year U.S. yield US10YT=RR has galloped 30 basis points on the prospect that Trump's planned policies would lift inflation, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
"Higher U.S. bond yields increase the opportunity cost of investing in Indian assets," Manish Bhargava, CEO at Straits Investment Management, said.
Rising Treasury yields signal tighter monetary policy, which can increase risk aversion among investors and that, in turn, impacts the appeal of Indian bonds, he said.
The rupee INR=IN, meanwhile, has plunged around 3% amid the dollar's rally since Trump's win.
India's weak September-quarter growth rate and the possibility of domestic rate cuts next month have also contributed to pushing the currency to a lifetime low of 86.6475 per dollar earlier this week.
"Most passive foreign inflows come on an unhedged basis and when the currency depreciates, it is natural for these flows to slow down," said Ajay Marwaha, senior executive vice president and head of fixed income markets at Nuvama.
"We will need a series of positives" for things to stabilize, starting with the new U.S. administration and the steps that it takes, he said.
Trump takes office on Jan. 20. ($1 = 86.5590 Indian rupees)
Pace of foreign inflows in JPM indexed India bonds has slowed down https://reut.rs/3C1n39V
(Reporting by Nimesh Vora and Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Savio D'Souza)
((Dharamraj.Dhutia@thomsonreuters.com;))
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