Here's why I'm still holding out for a Wesfarmers share price dip

MotleyFool
01-19

2024 was a great year for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and a fantastic one for the Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) share price.

Last year saw the ASX 200 Index rise by a solid 7.5%, which, with the addition of dividend returns, put it well above the average annual performance of the Australian share market.

A phenomenal two years for this ASX 200 blue-chip

However, the Wesfarmers share price left the broader market in the dust. The ASA 200 industrial and retail conglomerate started 2024 with a share price of $57.04. But by the time December wrapped up, those same shares were going for $71.53. That's a gain worth 25.4%.

When you factor in the two dividends that Wesfarmers also forked out last year, that return stretches to almost 29%.

What's more, this game comes off what was also a great year for Wesfarmers in 2023, which saw the company rise by another 24.2%. This, again, was well ahead of what the broader market brought in. See for yourself below:

Now, I've owned Wesfarmers shares for a number of years now, and have thus benefitted from these gains.

I love Wesfarmers as a company. Its incredibly broad portfolio of underlying businesses is attractive to me, particularly its stewardship of some of the best retailers in the country – OfficeWorks, Kmart and, of course, Bunnings.

Additionally, I view Wesfarmers' management team as highly competent, thanks to its long track record of astute capital management and prioritisation of shareholder returns.

Wesfarmers share price: Too expensive to buy?

As I documented last week, Wesfarmers is one of the ASX shares that I am most excited to buy in 2025. However, I probably won't be buying more shares at anywhere near the current Wesfarmers share price.

After those back-to-back years of outsized share price gains, Wesfarmers sits on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.64 today. That's well above the ASX 200 average.

Given Wesfarmers' unique nature as a sprawling conglomerate, as well as its track record of high returns, this company arguably deserves to trade on a premium. However, this stock is also a very mature company and isn't exactly growing at a breakneck pace.

To illustrate, for the 2024 financial year, Wesfarmers reported revenue growth of just 1.5% to $44.2 billion. Net profits and earnings per share (EPS) were a little better, rising by 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively, to $2.56 billion and 225.7 cents per share.

However, these metrics aren't really enough to justify the current P/E ratio in my mind. It doesn't exactly scream bargain when you consider that Google-parent Alphabet and Instagram-owner Meta Platforms, companies that clearly have longer growth runways than Wesfarmers, currently trade on lower P/E ratios than Wesfarmers.

So, in all likelihood, I'll wait for Wesfarmers to fall to a lower earnings multiple before I add to my existing position. It just doesn't make sense to buy this high-calibre company at the current valuation. Hopefully, I'll get a shot at buying Wesfarmers shares for a cheaper price this year.

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