BRIEF-ANZ: Outlook for Commodities Remains Mired in Uncertainty in Short Term

Reuters
01-17

Jan 17 (Reuters) - ANZ:

* SAYS OUTLOOK FOR COMMODITY MARKETS REMAINS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM

* SAYS MUCH OF THAT SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS RETURN OF DONALD TRUMP TO THE WHITE HOUSE

* SAYS TRUMP'S FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA ALSO REPRESENTS A KEY RISK TO ENERGY MARKETS

* SAYS THEY DON’T EXPECT TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE OIL MARKET FROM THE RECENT US SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA

* SAYS WITH RECENT RALLY IN OIL PRICES DUE TO US SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA’S OIL INDUSTRY, THEY HAVE RAISED SHORT TERM (0-3MTH) PRICE TARGET OF $85/BBL

* SEES CRUDE OIL PRICES TRADING IN A TIGHT RANGE OF $70-80/BBL FOR MOST OF THE YEAR

* EXPECT GOLD PRICES TO AVERAGE ABOVE $2,738/OZ OVER 2025; YEAR-END PRICE TARGET IS UNCHANGED AT AROUND $2,900/OZ

* EXPECT SILVER’S PRICE TO MOVE TOWARDS $36/OZ BY THE YEAR-END

* EXPECTS PLATINUM TO FIND ITS PRICE FLOOR IN THE RANGE OF $900–950/OZ; UPSIDE TO BE CAPPED FOR PALLADIUM

* SAYS COPPER SUPPLY CHALLENGES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO 2025

* ESTIMATES COPPER DEMAND WILL GROW BY 3.5% Y/Y TO 28MT, KEEPING THE MARKET UNDERSUPPLIED BY 500KT (2% OF ANNUAL DEMAND)

* SEES THAT NEGATIVE MARKET BALANCE WILL PROTECT THE DOWNSIDE FOR ALUMINIUM PRICES NEAR $2,400/T

* EXPECTS NICKEL PRICE TO FIND A FLOOR NEAR $16,000/T

* WITH ROBUST DEMAND AND LOW INVENTORIES, UPWARD PRESSURE ON GLOBAL GAS PRICES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FOR THE YEAR

((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))

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