Why Plug Power Stock Just Dropped an Unlucky 7%

Motley Fool
01-18
  • Morgan Stanley got it right earlier this week: Plug just received its Department of Energy loan guarantee.
  • Plug now has $1.7 billion to use building six new hydrogen plants.
  • Plug's problem: That $1.7 billion has to get paid back eventually, and the company has no history of ever making money to do it with.

Buy the rumor, sell the news -- that seems to be the story at Plug Power (PLUG -7.03%) stock this morning.

After running up big earlier in the week on rumors the U.S. Department of Energy would approve a $1.7 billion loan to promote hydrogen fuel production, shares of the hydrogen fuel cell manufacturer and hydrogen fuel producer sank 7.1% through 11:20 a.m. ET Friday. And why?

Apparently, because the U.S. Department of Energy just approved the loan.

Plug Power's good news

The news broke just after close of trading yesterday: The Department of Energy has officially closed on a $1.7 billion loan guarantee that will assist Plug's "expansion of our domestic manufacturing and hydrogen production capabilities."

Plug intends to take out the loan to fund "up to six projects to produce and liquify zero- or low-carbon hydrogen at scale throughout the United States," beginning with a green hydrogen plant in Graham, Texas. The company notes that it already has similar plants running in Woodbine, Georgia; Charleston, Tennessee; and St. Gabriel, Louisiana, producing a combined 45 tons of hydrogen fuel per day.

Mathematically speaking, therefore, the new DoE loan funding construction of six new plants should roughly triple the company's output to about 135 tons per day.

Is Plug Power stock a buy?

But at what cost? Loans are great, of course, and getting the U.S. government to guarantee you'll pay back your loan is even better for Plug. Still, loans aren't grants -- they're debt. And in theory at least, Plug is supposed to pay that debt back eventually.

But Plug already has nearly $930 million in debt on its books, against less than $94 million cash. It's burning more than $1.3 billion in cash annually, and reporting $1.4 billion in annual losses. Good as today's news may sound for Plug, this remains a stock with a 28-year history of doing nothing but losing money, and generally losing more money each year, than in the year previous.

Plug stock is a sell, plain and simple.

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