Northern Trust Corporation NTRS is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 23, before market open. The company’s revenues and earnings are expected to have improved from the year-ago reported level. 

Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.

In the last reported quarter, the bank recorded a positive earnings surprise of 13.3%. NTRS’ results benefited from a rise in fee income. Strong capital ratios were another positive. However, a rise in expenses was a headwind. 

Northern Trust has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the positive surprise being 10.11%, on average.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTRS’ fourth-quarter earnings of $2.02 per share has moved upward by 2.5% in the past 30 days. The figure indicates a 38.36% increase from the year-ago reported number.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.93 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 24.84%.

Key Factors & Estimates for NTRS’ Q4 Results

NII & Loans: The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 50 basis points during the fourth quarter of 2024. This, along with the rate cuts in September, is likely to have offered support to NTRS’ NII as the rise in funding/deposit costs declined.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII in the fourth quarter of 2024 is pegged at $551.3 million in the quarter under review, indicating a rise of 14.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Greater clarity regarding the Fed's rate cut trajectory, along with a stabilizing macroeconomic environment, is likely to have enhanced lending conditions. According to the Fed's recent data, the overall loan demand during the fourth quarter of 2024 remained robust. 

Thus, NTRS is likely to have witnessed a growth in loan demand, which is expected to have supported its average interest-earning asset growth in the quarter under review. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average earning assets is pegged at $135.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating a rise of 8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Non-Interest Income: Northern Trust calculates its asset servicing and wealth management servicing fees using a lag effect, relying on prior-quarter end valuations for these computations.

Asset servicing fees comprise custody and fund administration, investment management, securities lending and other fees.

The robust equity market performance in the fourth quarter is likely to have benefited NTRS by enhancing its custody and fund administration revenues, as well as its investment management fees.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for custody and fund administration fees is pegged at $466.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of 11%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment management fees is pegged at $156.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating an increase of 19.8% on a year-over-year basis.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total wealth management fees is pegged at $542.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating a year-over-year rise of 13.5%.

For the fourth quarter of 2024, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for other operating income is pegged at $55.9 million, indicating a 4.4% decrease on a year-over-year basis. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee income is pegged at $1.38 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating a 30.3% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Expenses: Northern Trust’s expenses are expected to have been high in the fourth quarter of 2024, given its rise in compensation and increased investment in equipment and software development. This is likely to have hindered bottom-line growth.

Management expects total operating expenses to increase 28.6% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $178 million.

Asset Quality: NTRS is likely to have set aside a decent amount of money for potential bad loans, given the expectations of higher for longer interest rate backdrop.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-accrual loans in the fourth quarter of 2024 is pegged at $47.3 million, indicating a 25.6% decline on a year-over-year basis.

What the Zacks Model Reveals for NTRS

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Northern Trust this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for NTRS is +0.38%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

A couple of bank stocks that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases are Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. TCBI and Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. CFR.

TCBI has an Earnings ESP of +1.87% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter and 2024 results on Jan. 23. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

CFR is scheduled to release fourth-quarter and 2024 earnings on Jan. 30. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.31% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (TCBI) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

Zacks Investment Research