Costco (COST, Financial) is on a collision course with the Teamsters as 18,000 union workers gear up for a potential strike on February 1. With 85% of members voting to authorize the strike, the retailer is running out of time to avoid a major disruption at 56 warehouse locations. The sticking points? Wages, benefits, and policies around seniority pay, paid family leave, and workplace surveillance—issues Costco has so far refused to budge on. The irony? The company just pulled in $254 billion in revenue and $7.4 billion in net profits, a 135% jump since 2018. Yet, workers say they're still fighting for a fair deal.

This isn't happening in a vacuum. Labor movements are gaining steam across the U.S., and unions aren't afraid to flex. The Teamsters already took on Amazon in a pre-holiday strike, and with a potential Trump presidency looming, the labor landscape could shift dramatically. Trump's nominee for labor secretary, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, has a mixed record—praised for pro-worker stances in Congress but aligned with a party that leans pro-business. Investors should keep an eye on how this unfolds because a return to anti-union policies could fuel tensions in retail and logistics, leading to more volatility in the sector.

For Costco investors, the risk is real. While strike votes don't always lead to actual walkouts—UPS (UPS, Financial) dodged a bullet last year with a last-minute deal—any prolonged disruption could hit Costco's supply chain, dent customer loyalty, and test its operational resilience. The stock has been a beast in the face of broader market swings, but with labor unrest brewing and economic uncertainty on the rise, investors need to ask: Can Costco keep its “efficient machine” reputation intact, or is this the moment it stumbles?