PACCAR PCAR will release fourth-quarter 2024 results tomorrow, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share and revenues is pegged at $1.68 and $7.44 billion, respectively.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

For the fourth quarter of 2024, the consensus estimate for PACCAR’s earnings per share has increased by 1 cent in the past 30 days. However, its top and bottom-line estimates imply a contraction of 13.4% and 37.8% from the fourth quarter of 2023.

In the trailing four quarters, PACCAR surpassed earnings estimates thrice and missed once, the average surprise being 7%. This is depicted in the graph below:

PACCAR Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

PACCAR Inc. price-eps-surprise | PACCAR Inc. Quote

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for the trucking giant this season, as it has the right combination of the two key ingredients. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: PACCAR has an Earnings ESP of +1.19%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged 2 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors at Play

The projected year-over-year decline in truck deliveries in the fourth quarter raises concerns. For the fourth quarter of 2024, PACCAR expects to deliver around 42,000 trucks, implying a decrease from 51,100 units delivered in the corresponding period of 2023. This is likely to limit revenues. Our expectation for total revenues from the Trucks segment is $5.6 billion, calling for a 19.7 decline on a year-over-year basis. Our projections for pretax income from the segment is $608.4 million, down from $996.4 million generated in the year-ago quarter.

While the Truck unit is likely to clip overall results, PACCAR's Parts segment is a bright spot. The demand for aftermarket parts is on the rise, spurred by high truck utilization and increased average fleet age. Encouragingly, our projection for fourth-quarter revenues from the Parts segment is pegged at $1.6 billion, indicating a rise of 4% year over year. An expanding network of parts distribution centers, dealer locations and independent TRP stores, along with managed dealer inventory and innovative e-commerce systems, is likely to have buoyed the Parts segment.

We expect revenues from the Financial Services segment to be around $588 million, implying more than 21% growth year over year.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Let’s take a look at a few other players from the auto space, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat for the quarter to be reported:

General Motors GM will release fourth-quarter 2024 results tomorrow. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.85% and a Zacks Rank #2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for General Motors’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.75 per share and $43.8 billion, respectively. GM surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 17.5%.

Tesla TSLA is set to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Wednesday. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.68% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tesla’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 74 cents per share and $27.5 billion, respectively. TSLA surpassed earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with the average surprise being 0.13%.

Lear Corp. LEA is set to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 6. The company has an Earnings ESP of +7.86% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear’s to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and revenues is pegged at $2.44 and $5.47 billion, respectively. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other, with the average surprise being 5.9%.

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