RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. RNR is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 28, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $7.61 per share on revenues of $3 billion.

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The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has moved north by 24 cents over the past month. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 35.3%. On the contrary, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 14%.

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For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for RenaissanceRe’s revenues is pegged at $11.8 billion, implying a rise of 35.5% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for current-year earnings is pegged at $42.52 per share, implying a jump of around 13.3% on a year-over-year basis.

RenaissanceRe’s bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 28%. This is depicted in the chart below:

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. price-eps-surprise | RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. Quote

Q4 Earnings Whispers for RNR

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for RenaissanceRe this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Earnings ESP: RenaissanceRe has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $7.68 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.61. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: RNR currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

What’s Shaping RNR’s Q4 Results?

RenaissanceRe's top line is likely to have benefited from higher premiums earned in its Property, and Casualty and Specialty segments in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for overall net premiums earned is pegged at $2.6 billion, which indicates a 13.9% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Improved net investment income is likely to have contributed to RNR’s revenues. The revenue component is expected to have been aided by an increase in average invested assets and higher returns from its fixed maturity and short-term portfolios in the fourth quarter. The consensus mark for net investment income is pegged at $430.3 million, indicating a 14.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the metric is pinned at $430.5 million.

Results of the Property unit are likely to have benefited from increased demand for reinsurance and a favorable rate environment in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s net premiums earned is pegged at $969.8 million, which implies a 9.7% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

Meanwhile, strength in other specialty business line is expected to have driven the Casualty and Specialty segment’s performance. The consensus mark for the unit’s net premiums earned is pegged at $1.6 billion, suggesting 15.4% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

However, the continued incidence of catastrophe losses may have dampened the underwriting results of RenaissanceRe and is expected to have led to a deterioration in the combined ratio in the fourth quarter. We anticipate the company’s overall underwriting income to decline 71.3% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the combined ratio is pinned at 92.6%, which indicates a deterioration of 1,659 basis points year over year.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies from the broader finance space, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. BFH has an Earnings ESP of +25.94% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bread Financial’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 34 cents per share, which increased 4 cents in the past month. BFH beat earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters and missed twice, with an average surprise of 70.2%.

Palomar Holdings, Inc. PLMR has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Palomar’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $1.24 per share, which remained stable over the past week. PLMR beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 14.9%. The consensus estimate for PLMR’s revenues is pegged at $147.2 million, indicating 43.8% growth from a year ago.

Rithm Capital Corp. RITM has an Earnings ESP of +2.22% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rithm Capital’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 45 cents per share, which remained stable over the past month. The consensus estimate for RITM’s revenues is pegged at $1.23 billion, indicating 73.2% growth from a year ago.

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