CSL, PME or REA: Which ASX stock will be the first to hit $500?

LiveWire

01-28

From left to right: Medallion's Michael Wayne, FNArena's Rudi Filapek-Vandyck & Marcus Today's Henry Jennings As investors, we’re irresistibly drawn to milestones, and the past year has provided a ...

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As investors, we’re irresistibly drawn to milestones, and the past year has provided a jackpot of them. The ASX stormed past 8,000, Bitcoin soared beyond US$100,000, NVIDIA hit a mind-boggling US$3 trillion valuation, and Elon Musk’s fortune eclipsed the GDP of New Zealand at US$400 billion.Blame ‘round-number bias’ and the ‘salience effect’ - quirks of human psychology that make thresholds like a stock hitting $100 or an index crossing 10,000 feel larger than life and impossible to forget.The fascination isn’t just with indices; individual stock prices are also breaking records. Costco recently cracked US$1,000, Netflix is hot on its heels, and Nvidia’s stock has soared so high over the years that it has split six times. Its unadjusted price would now top US$14,000!With local heavyweights like Macquarie, Pro Medicus, Cochlear, CSL, and REA Group all trading above $200, what’s ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MQG.AU":"Macquarie","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","BK7501":"新冠治疗股","BK4086":"建筑产品","BK7094":"医疗保健技术","COH.AU":"COCHLEAR LTD","PME":"平潭海洋实业有限公司","BK7508":"医药生物股","REA.AU":"REA GROUP LTD","PME.AU":"PRO MEDICUS LTD","BK7002":"互动媒体与服务","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类","BK7511":"ESG概念","CSL.AU":"CSL LIMITED","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","CSL":"卡莱尔伙伴","BK7007":"医疗保健设备","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","BK7046":"综合性资本市场","LU1169590202.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK7067":"生物科技","LU0728928796.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL SMALL&MID-CAP SDG HORIZONS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU1169589451.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK7503":"科技股"},"translate_title":"CSL、PME或REA：哪只ASX股票将率先触及500美元？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"REA.AU":1,"PME.AU":1,"PME":1,"MQG.AU":1,"CSL.AU":1,"CSL":1,"COH.AU":1,"XKO.AU":0.69,"XJO.AU":0.69,"XAO.AU":0.69},"content_text":"From left to right: Medallion's Michael Wayne, FNArena's Rudi Filapek-Vandyck & Marcus Today's Henry Jennings\nAs investors, we’re irresistibly drawn to milestones, and the past year has provided a jackpot of them. The ASX stormed past 8,000, Bitcoin soared beyond US$100,000, NVIDIA hit a mind-boggling US$3 trillion valuation, and Elon Musk’s fortune eclipsed the GDP of New Zealand at US$400 billion.\nWhy do we love these milestones? Blame ‘round-number bias’ and the ‘salience effect’ - quirks of human psychology that make thresholds like a stock hitting $100 or an index crossing 10,000 feel larger than life and impossible to forget.\nThe fascination isn’t just with indices; individual stock prices are also breaking records. Costco recently cracked US$1,000, Netflix is hot on its heels, and Nvidia’s stock has soared so high over the years that it has split six times. Its unadjusted price would now top US$14,000!\nGiven the wild numbers we’re seeing globally, we thought: why not apply that thought experiment here? With local heavyweights like Macquarie, Pro Medicus, Cochlear, CSL, and REA Group all trading above $200, what’s stopping them (or another ASX company) from hitting $500 from their current price?\nTo answer this, we asked three fund managers to share their bold predictions, the growth catalysts required to get to $500, and the first stock they believe will hit that number.\n#1. CSL (ASX: CSL)\nKey milestones:\n\n\n2007: CSL hit $100 before its 3-for-1 split.\n\n2015: CSL hit $100 (again)\n\n2018: Cracked $200.\n\n2020: First surpassed $300.\n\nNote: CSL would technically be above $500 were it not for its 3-for-1 split in 2007, however, this wire is examining companies based on their current share price.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCSL's 20-year chart (Source: Market Index)\n\nAustralia’s perennial healthcare darling, CSL, has endured a rough five years. \nRemember 2020, when shareholders were bursting with excitement as it first cracked $300? Those were the glory days. Since then, the biotech giant has been stuck in a frustrating sideways trend, leaving investors wondering when the magic will return.\nDespite this lacklustre performance, FNArena’s Rudi Filapek-Vandyck remains bullish, and you, our readers, have crowned CSL and its healthcare sibling, Pro Medicus (which we’ll discuss shortly), as the #1 and #2 growth stocks for 2025, respectively.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRudi Filapek-Vandyck, FNArena\nSo, why the unwavering enthusiasm when the stock price seems to tell a different story? Filapek-Vandyck explains that much of CSL’s challenges stem from bad luck. The underperforming Vifor acquisition has been a drag, but other issues are outside management’s control.\n“I am sure most of us can relate to such a period in our lives. Spoiler alert: it does not last,” he says.\nCatalysts for $500 share price\nFilapek-Vandyck says if the following unfolds in the CSL story, the company could finally snap out of its trading range:\n\n\nPlasma collection growth: Sustained double-digit growth in plasma collection and margin improvement.\n\nImproved key financial metrics: Further improvement in metrics following FY24’s positive step-up.\n\nImmunoglobulin sales: Continued strong growth in CSL Behring’s flagship product line.\n\nWhen will it reach $500?\nFilapek-Vandyck expects CSL to trade above $400 in three years and says $500 in five years “is not out of the question.”\n#2. Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG)\nKey Milestones:\n\n\n2007: MQG hit $100 (it was an intraday high).\n\n2021: Cracked $200.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMacquarie Group's long-run share price. (Source: Market Index)\nMacquarie is the powerhouse bank that keeps on giving. Since the COVID crash, Macquarie has been in beast mode, proving just how resilient and income-generating its business model can be.\nDespite recent momentum, Marcus Today’s Henry Jennings is neutral on Macquarie Group (MQG). “It has missed expectations recently but has still risen - more on hope than anything,” Jennings says.\nCatalysts for a $500 share price\nJennings says MQG could be due for a re-rating if it capitalise on the following factors:\n\n\nM&A recovery: A recovery in deal activity, particularly in private equity and infrastructure.\n\nMacquarie Asset Management execution: Continued growth in its asset management business, which currently manages $915 billion in assets.\n\nEasing monetary policy: Lower global interest rates, expected with Fed cuts in 2025, which would improve capital markets activity.\n\nWhen will it reach $500?\n“It is hard to see $500 in the next five years given increased competition for assets,” Jennings says.\n#3. Cochlear (ASX: COH)\nKey milestones:\n\n\n2016: Cochlear hit $100.\n\n2019: Cracked $200.\n\n2024: Surpassed $300.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCochlear's share price performance. (Source: Market Index)\nFlying under the radar, Cochlear is a true Australian success story. It quietly crossed the $300 share price last year, but Medallion Financial Group’s Michael Wayne remains cautious.\n“EPS growth has been relatively stagnant, and profit margins have declined. We’ll need proof that the business is gaining traction in emerging markets while fending off challengers to its market share,” he says.\nCatalysts for $500 share price\nTo get to $500, Wayne says Cochlear needs to execute the following successfully:\n\n\nCapture emerging markets: Expansion into emerging markets to capture new revenue streams.\n\nControl costs: Improved cost efficiencies to reverse declining margins.\n\n#4. Pro Medicus (ASX: PME)\nKey Milestones:\n\n2024: Topped $100, then $200.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nPro Medicus' long-run share price (Source: Market Index)\nA standout growth story, Pro Medicus (PME) has seen remarkable revenue and earnings growth, consistently improving its margins. Its EPS is projected to grow 34% in FY25 and 41% in FY26, according to Wayne.\n“The business continues to perform very well. The balance sheet is in a strong position, margins are very high and the size of new contract wins continues to increase with a large part of the potential market still untapped,” he says.\nCatalysts for $500 share price:\nWayne sees $500 as a realistic target for PME if the company can:\n\n\nSecure more contracts: With the immense scale of U.S. healthcare spending, landing additional large contracts would significantly boost growth.\n\nDeliver on key metrics: Successfully scaling revenues while improving margins will strengthen profitability.\n\nCapture the imaging market: Tapping into the vast untapped potential of the global healthcare imaging sector presents a substantial growth opportunity.\n\nBut while attractive as PME is, Wayne believes there’s another strong contender in the race to $500.\n#5. REA Group (ASX: REA)\nKey Milestones:\n\n\n2014: REA hit $100.\n\n2024: Crossed $200.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nREA Group's long-run share price performance (Source: Market Index)\nAustralians’ obsession with property makes REA Group a top pick for playing this enduring theme, says Filapek-Vandyck.\n“Who is brave enough to predict this strong undercurrent will change in the years ahead?” he says.\nCatalysts for $500 share price\nFilapek-Vandyck believes REA has the potential to eventually reach $500, driven by key catalysts:\n\n\nSustained growth in Australia’s property market: A strong housing sector continues to underpin revenue growth, as well as margin and revenue expansion by charging more fees for listing properties for sale.\n\nExpansion into international real estate markets: Entering new markets is essential for future growth, especially as REA and Domain already dominate the online listings market in Australia.\n\nSo, who will hit $500 first?\nWith the base case and level of conviction established for each company, here’s who the fund managers believe is most likely to reach the $500 milestone first:\n- Filapek-Vandyck’s pick: Pro Medicus\nFilapek-Vandyck is confident that all the companies mentioned could reach $500 within 4–7 years (share splits excluded). However, if forced to choose, he would bet on Pro Medicus due to its younger franchise, higher growth rate, and multiple avenues for expansion.\n“We could see $500 in four years’ time, maybe.”\n- Wayne’s contenders: CSL or Pro Medicus\nWayne highlights CSL and Pro Medicus as strong candidates, though determining which could nearly double its share price first is a tough call.\nCSL: Its circa 20% EPS growth outlook supports the case for $500.\n“Their flagship CSL Behring business rebounded well from pandemic troubles, due to strong growth in immunoglobulin sales.The Behring operations remain the main driver of group earnings, representing not only 70% of the FY24 operating result but also 90% of the expected increase over the coming five years,” he mentioned.\nPro Medicus: Its untapped potential in the healthcare imaging market makes it a formidable challenger to CSL.\n- Jennings’ surprise bet: Block (ASX: SQ2)\nJennings throws a wildcard into the mix, betting on Block (formerly Square, owner of Afterpay).\nBlock’s appeal lies in its strong crypto exposure, sleek new POS machines, and seamless integration of its ecosystem (Square, Cash App, and Afterpay).\nMeanwhile, the American consumer is warming up to BNPL, and Cash App has become one of the largest global debit card providers.\n\"US BNPL is gaining momentum and has the potential to double earnings; Cash App is now one of the biggest debit cards globally, and the addition of BNPL to the app and along with the marketing around it should pay off,” he says.\nThe verdict\nWhile all three companies are solid picks with credible paths to $500, Filapek-Vandyck and Wayne lean toward Pro Medicus for its rapid growth and untapped potential over CSL. However, Jennings’ bet on Block highlights the disruptive power of fintech, making it a dark horse worth watching.\nAnd now we turn to you: Which ASX stock do you think will hit $500 first?\n\n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1}}}