Mining shares and bank stocks are usually among the most generous dividend payers of the ASX 200.
But how will a volatile iron ore price and lower demand from China impact the major miners' dividends?
And can the banks' dividend yields remain high after massive share price growth last year?
In this article, we look at the forecast 2025 dividends from the large-cap ASX 200 mining and bank shares.
These predictions reflect consensus expectations among analysts on the CommSec trading platform.
Here are the consensus forecasts for 2025 dividends as published on CommSec today.
| ASX 200 large-cap mining share | Forecast 2025 dividend | Dividend yield |
| Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) | $1.128 | 5.88% |
| Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) | $4.405 | 3.74% |
| BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) | $1.726 | 4.32% |
| South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) | 5.6 cents | 3.37% |
| Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) | 47.5 cents | 1.66% |
| Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) | 11.2 cents | 1.95% |
The iron ore price has been slightly stronger in the new year, prompting some experts to speculate that ASX 200 mining shares may pay better dividends than originally expected.
Aaron Binsted, portfolio manager of Lazard's Australian equity income fund, says he is hoping for "better mining dividends" if the iron ore price remains above $US100 per tonne.
The iron ore price closed at US$101.33 per tonne overnight.
Here are the consensus forecasts for 2025 dividends as published on CommSec today.
| ASX 200 large-cap bank share | Forecast 2025 dividend | Dividend yield |
| Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) | $4.95 | 3.08% |
| National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) | $1.72 | 4.3% |
| Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) | $1.55 | 4.58% |
| Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) | $6.50 | 2.69% |
| ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) | $1.70 | 5.56% |
ASX 200 bank stocks experienced phenomenal share price growth last year.
A higher share price will typically lead to a lower dividend yield unless an ASX company increases its earnings and raises its dividends.
Darren Thompson, Head of Asset Management at Equity Trustees Asset Management, says this is unlikely for the ASX 200 bank shares this year.
He comments:
Bank earnings are anticipated to be broadly flat due to a combination of modest credit growth, ongoing competition restricting net interest margins, ongoing cost pressures and already cyclically low bad debt provisions.
Jed Richards of Shaw and Partners recently told The Bull that the banks will find it tough enough to sustain their profits, let alone generate growth, in today's difficult economic environment.
If we look at the tables above, we see more stocks in the banking sector offering dividend yields above the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) annual average of 4% than in the mining sector.
Across these 11 ASX 200 mining and bank stocks, iron ore pure-play Fortescue offers the best dividend yield at 5.88%. However, ANZ shares are not far behind at 5.56%.
So, it's fair to say that ASX bank shares are likely to deliver better dividend yields than mining shares this year.
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