What Happened?

Shares of casual restaurant chain Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) jumped 15% in the morning session after the company reported strong fourth-quarter (fiscal Q2 2025) results that convincingly beat analysts' revenue and EPS expectations. All brands posted growth, but Chili's led with a 31.4% increase in comparable restaurant sales, followed by a 27.4% rise at Brinker. Notably, growth benefited from an increase in both traffic and pricing, which contributed to the earnings beat. Looking ahead, EAT raised its full-year revenue and EPS guidance. Zooming out, we think this was a great quarter.

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What The Market Is Telling Us

Brinker International’s shares are quite volatile and have had 17 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Brinker International and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business. 

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 6 months ago when the stock dropped 16.4% on the news that the company reported second-quarter earnings results. Brinker's EPS missed. Its full-year earnings forecast missed analysts' expectations as well, suggesting expectations were high heading ahead of earnings. On the other hand, revenue came in ahead of consensus. Zooming out, we think this was a mixed quarter, but the outlook is weighing on shares.

Brinker International is up 28% since the beginning of the year, and at $176.22 per share, has set a new 52-week high. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Brinker International’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $3,954.

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