When it comes to investing, there are some useful financial metrics that can warn us when a business is potentially in trouble. When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. And from a first read, things don't look too good at CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI), so let's see why.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for CVR Energy, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.057 = US$162m ÷ (US$3.9b - US$1.1b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

So, CVR Energy has an ROCE of 5.7%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Oil and Gas industry average of 12%.

Check out our latest analysis for CVR Energy

Above you can see how the current ROCE for CVR Energy compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering CVR Energy for free.

What Does the ROCE Trend For CVR Energy Tell Us?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at CVR Energy. About five years ago, returns on capital were 19%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on CVR Energy becoming one if things continue as they have.

While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 27%, which has impacted the ROCE. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. Keep an eye on this ratio, because the business could encounter some new risks if this metric gets too high.

In Conclusion...

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. In spite of that, the stock has delivered a 7.4% return to shareholders who held over the last five years. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

On a final note, we found 2 warning signs for CVR Energy (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.

While CVR Energy isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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