Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) has typically delivered a higher dividend yield than other ASX 200 mining stocks in recent years.
But can the company afford to do so again in 2025 amid volatile iron ore prices and ongoing new investment in its green energy business?
Let's find out.
In this article, we reveal the forecast 2025 dividends among the large-cap ASX 200 mining shares.
These forecasts reflect consensus predictions among analysts using the CommSec trading platform.
We also compare the 2025 dividend forecasts to the 2024 dividends paid by the miners last year so you can see the difference.
There are six large-cap miners in the ASX 200.
Large-caps are companies with a market capitalisation above $10 billion.
Here are the consensus forecasts for 2025 dividends as published on CommSec today.
| ASX 200 large-cap mining share | 2024 dividend | Trailing yield | Forecast 2025 dividend | Dividend yield |
| Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) | $2.005 | 10.39% | $1.128 | 5.85% |
| Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) | $6.36 | 5.42% | $5.489 | 4.67% |
| BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) | 2.204 | 5.58% | $1.726 | 4.37% |
| South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) | 5.3 cents | 1.58% | 5.6 cents | 1.67% |
| Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) | 40 cents | 2.36% | 47.5 cents | 2.8% |
| Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) | 7 cents | 1.23% | 11.2 cents | 1.97% |
As you can see, Fortescue is expected to pay the highest dividend yield among the ASX 200 large-cap mining shares in 2025.
Note that the forecast dividend dollar amounts for the iron ore stocks, Fortescue, BHP, and Rio Tinto, are lower than in 2024.
However, significant share price falls over the past year will help keep their dividend yields above 4%, which is the average delivered by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) each year.
The main reason for this is a lower iron ore price.
In 2024, the 62% iron ore price fell by more than 20% as investors fretted over China's flailing economy.
China imports more iron ore than any other country. Government data shows the country imports 76% of the world's supply. Australia is the world's largest producer of iron ore, providing 56% of global supply.
Demand from China is expected to weaken if stimulus measures do not sufficiently prop up the economy so that it can continue building roads, bridges, property, and other infrastructure at the same rate.
US President Donald Trump's threat of a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods is another economic headwind for China.
Some experts note that the iron ore price has been a bit stronger in the new year.
They say this may result in ASX iron ore large-cap shares like Fortescue paying better-than-expected dividends this year.
Aaron Binsted, portfolio manager of Lazard's Australian equity income fund, says he is hoping for "better mining dividends" if the iron ore price remains above $US100 per tonne.
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