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Jan 30 - Andy Home, Senior Metals Columnist

Welcome to Power Up. Today’s feature is on the resurgent uranium market, which has awoken from a decade-long slumber after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan. Demand is rising, supply is failing to keep up and prices have moved structurally higher. But is it a critical mineral?

Also in today’s issue, why Europe is feeling the effects of reduced wind in Germany, the winners and losers from the latest sanctions on Russian oil, a landmark court case in the United Kingdom and China’s new nuclear fusion research centre.

URANIUM BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Is uranium a critical mineral? Not according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) which dropped it from its 2022 critical minerals list on the basis it didn’t qualify being a “fuel mineral”.

U.S. President Donald Trump wants them to think again. One of the many “Unleashing American Energy” directives is for the Department of the Interior to instruct to the USGS director to “consider updating the survey's list of critical minerals, including for the potential of including uranium."

It’s curious that uranium has slipped through a legal gap in the Energy Act of 2020, which stipulates only a "non-fuel mineral" can be considered as a critical mineral.

Uranium ticks many of the critical mineral boxes. It is facing a step-change in demand, supply is highly concentrated and the United States is almost totally import-dependent.

After a decade in the wilderness following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, nuclear power is back in favour. Official recognition came at the COP28 summit in 2023, when more than 20 countriespledged to triple nuclear power generation by 2050.

Such green credentials are unlikely to resonate with the Trump administration but Republicans have historically been pro-nuclear on national security grounds.

Big Tech is also enthusiastic as it seeks ever more power for its data centers. Microsoft signed a deal with Constellation Energy in September to help resurrect a unit of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.

This is a global trend. Nuclear reactors will generate record amounts of power in 2025 and some 63 new reactors are under construction, the highest number since 1990, according to the International Energy Agency.

But where will all the uranium come from? The uranium price last year rocketed to 16-year highs above $100 per lb and although the price has since retreated to $71, that’s still higher than at any point in the decade after Fukushima

The market is signalling a shortfall of supply. The United States has plenty of potential projects with which to plug that gap. However, how fast they can be activated depends on the difference between a critical mineral and a “fuel mineral” that is becoming increasingly critical.

Here’s my longer take on uranium’s resurgence.

ESSENTIAL READING

• Germany is experiencing an unseasonal lack of wind. This is a problem for both Germany, where wind power is the primary source of electricity, and for the rest of Europe, as Gavin Maguire, energy transition columnist investigates.

• The International Energy Agency $(IEA)$ has just got a taste of what to expect from the Donald Trump administration. A new report by the Agency’s former oil industry and market chief criticizes the IEA for being too focused on the energy transition. Valerie Volcovici in Washington has the lowdown.

• The crude oil market is having to adapt quickly to the new sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet of tankers. Reuters columnist Clyde Russell examines the likely winners and losers.

• Britain's approvals for two vast North Sea oil and gas fields have just been overturned by a Scottish court. It’s a big win for environmental groups but casts doubt on the future of new fossil fuel projects in the UK, as Sam Tobin and Susanna Twidale explain.

• China appears to be building a large laser-ignited nuclear fusion research centre in the southwestern city of Mianyang. Gerry Doyle in Singapore has the exclusive… with pictures.

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(Editing by Marguerita Choy)

((andy.home@thomsonreuters.com))