Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) lowered its production guidance for Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) during the fiscal year due to the underperformance of its well, which might spark questions about APLNG's reserve risks, Jarden Research said in a Friday note.

The company on Thursday, reported Australia Pacific LNG revenue for the December 2024 quarter was AU$2.71 billion, up 14% from a year earlier on the back of higher volumes and prices.

However, the oil and gas firm cut its Australia Pacific LNG production guidance for the fiscal year to 670 to 690 petajoules from a previous projection of 685 to 710 petajoules, due to the lower performance of its Condabri, Talinga, and Orana assets in Central Queensland.

Jarden Research noted that the market is used to the company upgrading its reserves with strong results at its well.

The broker also expects Origin Energy's increased fiscal first-half tax guidance of AU$705 million to negatively impact market consensus of the company's cash flow for the fiscal year.

Jarden has an underweight rating on Origin Energy with a price target of AU$10.65.

Shares of the company fell past 7% at market close.