MSCI Inc. (NYSE:MSCI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.9% to US$597 in the week after its latest full-year results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$2.9b and statutory earnings per share of US$14.05. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for MSCI

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MSCI's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$3.11b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 8.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 12% to US$15.94. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$15.87 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$657, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic MSCI analyst has a price target of US$723 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$530. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that MSCI is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MSCI's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MSCI's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while MSCI's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$657, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for MSCI going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for MSCI that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.