Prudential Financial, Inc. (NYSE:PRU) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$65b revenue coming in 3.9% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.50 missed the mark badly, arriving some 32% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Prudential Financial

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eleven analysts covering Prudential Financial, is for revenues of US$54.3b in 2025. This implies a considerable 17% reduction in Prudential Financial's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 75% to US$13.24. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$57.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.39 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

The average price target was steady at US$126even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Prudential Financial at US$149 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$101. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Prudential Financial's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Prudential Financial's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 17% to the end of 2025. This tops off a historical decline of 0.3% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Prudential Financial to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$126, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Prudential Financial. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Prudential Financial analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Prudential Financial has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.