Ford CEO: Trump tariffs would wipe out billions in profits if they're long lasting

Yahoo Finance
02-06

Ford (F) CEO Jim Farley has a message to the Trump administration: Our profits will be run over if you hit the world with tariff hikes. 

"There's no question that tariffs at 25% level from Canada, Mexico, if they're protracted, would have a huge impact on our industry, with billions of dollars of industry profits wiped out and adverse effect on the US jobs as well as the entire value system in our industry. Tariffs would also mean higher prices for customers," Farley said on a late Wednesday earnings call.

President Donald Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Monday, while a 10% tariff on China kicked in on Tuesday. 

The tariffs could inject chaos into auto supply chains, experts say. The auto industry accounts for 26% of imports from Mexico to the US, and 12% from Canada, UBS researchers estimated.

Farley believes tariffs for a few weeks would be "manageable", but after that, they would be painful to the company's top and bottom lines.

"We believe based on our conversations in D.C. with the Trump administration and congressional leaders that they are committed to strengthening, not weakening our nation's auto industry. That is certainly our expectation. And we look forward to working with our leaders to make sure that that becomes a reality. Because they understand and appreciate how vital our industry is to jobs, the economy, our national security and the communities across our country," Farley said. 

Watch: how Jim Farley interacts with Elon Musk

Farley's blunt views on tariffs come on the heels of a mixed 2024.

While full year sales rose 5% from the prior year, adjusted earnings per share dropped 7%. The company was weighed down in large part by a $5 billion operating loss at its Model E electric vehicle division.

Ford's share price fell 6% to $9.53 in pre-market trading as investors digested a lackluster quarter from the auto giant. The company's ticker page was the fifth most active on Yahoo Finance at last check, trailing AI plays such as BigBear.ai (BBAI), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Qualcomm (QCOM).

The Ford CEO's comments echo the warning from General Motors (GM) chair and CEO Mary Barra on Yahoo Finance following its latest earnings report. GM's profit outlook unnerved the Street as it didn't bake in the impact of tariffs.

A car hauler carries Toyota RAV4 vehicles en route from Ontario, Canada, to Detroit, Michigan on February 3, 2025. (JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
JEFF KOWALSKY via Getty Images

GM produces highly profitable pickup trucks in Mexico and relies on plants there to make EVs such as the Chevy Blazer and Cadillac Optiq. It has five large assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. Ford manufactures 12% of its products in the two countries..

"There's a question of how fast you can react to that [tariff]. You don't have a lot of extra capacity in the US to move," Bank of America auto analyst John Murphy said on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast.

The other component is whether demand takes a hit, should automakers hike prices to offset tariffs.

Kelley Blue Book estimates the average cost of a car would increase by $3,000 if Trump pushes through 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. That could send people toward buying cheaper used cars.

In its earnings report, Ford opted to take a cautious view on 2025. 

It sees adjusted operating profits of $7 billion to $8.5 billion, which would be lower than the $10.2 billion logged last year. The Street had been expecting $8.3 billion.

"Ford's 2025 guidance came in well below consensus but some investors wonder if this could mean numbers are derisked. We think it is too early to tell. Inventory days are elevated, and this could lead to down net pricing. Ford also faces launch cost headwinds and greater EV volumes coming at the expense of profits," RBC analyst Tom Naryan said in a client note. 

Naryan cut his price target on Ford to $9 from $10. He continues to rate shares at Sector Perform.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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