We expect Moderna MRNA to surpass expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on Feb. 14, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, MRNA’s earnings beat estimates by 101.59%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $955.23 million and at a loss of $2.65 per share, respectively. Both metrics indicate a significant decline from the year-ago levels.

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Factors Shaping MRNA’s Upcoming Results

The company is likely to have generated a major portion of its revenues from selling its COVID-19 vaccine. Our model estimate for the vaccine’s sales is pegged at $869 million, implying a significant decline from the year-ago level due to lower demand.

Based on MRNA’s preliminary updates last month, we expect minimal product sales of the company's RSV vaccine mResvia, which received FDA approval in May. Our model estimate for this vaccine’s sales is pinned at $50 million. This number is significantly low when compared to the sales of currently marketed RSV vaccines Arexvy and Abrysvo, marketed by pharma giants GSK and Pfizer, respectively. The softer sales expectation is likely due to the vaccine being approved and recommended later in the contracting season. By that time, many customers must have already completed their orders.

Moderna is developing more than 40 mRNA-based investigational candidates in different stages of clinical studies, targeting various indications, including cancer. Management is evaluating multiple candidates in late-stage studies — mRNA-1647 [cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine], mRNA-1010 (influenza vaccine), mRNA-4157/V940 [individualized neoantigen therapy (INT)] and mRNA-1083 (COVID-19 plus influenza combination vaccine).

An important candidate garnering investor attention is mRNA-4157, an investigational INT being developed in collaboration with Merck MRK. Moderna and Merck are evaluating mRNA-4157 in three pivotal phase III studies — one in melanoma indication and the other two in the non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) space.

Since the onset of 2024, Moderna and Merck have also started three new clinical studies evaluating mRNA-4157 across cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, renal cell carcinoma and muscle-invasive bladder cancer indications. Investors would likely seek an update from management on the cancer therapy’s progress across these studies.

MRNA’s Earnings Surprise History

The biotech firm’s performance has been impressive over the past four quarters. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 72.65%.

Year to date, Moderna’s shares have lost 19% against the industry’s growth of 6%.

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What Our Model Predicts for MRNA

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combinationofa positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Moderna has an Earnings ESP of 3.26% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat onearnings this time around:

CRISPR Therapeutics CRSP has an Earnings ESP of +8.09% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

CRISPR’s shares have gained more than 3% year to date. The company beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and met the mark on one occasion, delivering an average surprise of 100.64%.

Sarepta Therapeutics SRPT has an Earnings ESP of +6.40% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Year to date, Sarepta’s shares have lost nearly 8%. SRPT beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 981.21%.

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Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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