Value Stocks Are Outearning Forecasts. Why JPMorgan, IBM, and Ford Look Like Winners

Dow Jones
02-08

Value investors have struggled recently, but the first-quarter is turning out to be a winner with stalwarts like JPMorgan Chase, IBM, and Ford all reporting earnings that beat analysts' expectations.

Lately the stock market has been all about big growth names. The Vanguard Value ETF, a popular value stock-oriented index fund, has lagged behind the S&P 500 four out of the last five years, according to Morningstar. While it's still early, 2025 is shaping up as a much better year. So far the fund has returned 4.8%, compared with 3.5% for the broad market.

Investors can thank a strong showing this earnings season. So far 72% of value companies have beaten Wall Street earnings forecasts, according to 22V Research, compared with a long-term median of just 63%.

Large banks have been some of the biggest winners, helped by strong investment banking revenue and interest rates that were lower than a year ago. The Invesco KBW Bank ETF has returned 10.5% year to date.

JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo all reported better-than-expected earnings last month. JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank by assets, said its fourth-quarter profit surged 50% as investment-banking fees jumped 49%.

While JPMorgan stock has climbed 58% in the past 12 months, it's still trading at just 15 times 2025 earnings, compared with 22 times for the S&P 500, suggesting it has more room to run.

"Investment banking is coming off the trough and there is less global competition for IPOs and equity secondaries, debt underwriting, and M&A advisory fees," wrote CFRA analyst Kenneth Leon, who has a 'Buy' rating on JPMorgan, in a recent note. "We also see mid-size companies looking to shift loans and other services to larger banks like JPM."

Tech names beyond the Magnificent Seven have also done well. IBM is no longer a tech A-lister, but recently it, too, has been benefiting from AI excitement. Big Blue's stock rallied more than 10% after it handily beat earnings forecasts in January, helped by a $2 billion increase in AI business.

The stock is no longer as cheap as it once was. Its forward P/E of about 24 has doubled in the past three years. But IBM still has room to appreciate, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who reiterated his outperform rating this week. IBM has been revolutionizing its consulting business with the help of AI, wrote Ives. At the same time, the company has cut $3.5 billion in costs, to invest in high-growth areas.

Investors looking for a deeper value bet should check out Ford Motor. On Wednesday, Ford reported a fourth-quarter operating profit of $2.1 billion, edging Wall Street forecasts for $2 billion.

Still, the stock sank about 7% on a weaker-than-expected 2025 outlook. While Ford has its struggles, including bloated inventory and quality control issues, it should benefit from a still-strong economy. Cox Automotive recently forecast Americans would buy 16.3 million new cars in 2025, predicting it would be "the best year for the market since 2019."

Given Ford has forward P/E of just 6.4 and a dividend yield of 6.5%, investors willing to take a risk could end up well compensated.

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