Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that ALS Limited (ASX:ALQ) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for ALS
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 ALS had AU$1.64b of debt, an increase on AU$1.35b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of AU$254.6m, its net debt is less, at about AU$1.38b.
According to the last reported balance sheet, ALS had liabilities of AU$713.7m due within 12 months, and liabilities of AU$1.94b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had AU$254.6m in cash and AU$585.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by AU$1.82b.
ALS has a market capitalization of AU$8.13b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
ALS's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.4 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 6.4 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Notably ALS's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year. We would prefer to see some earnings growth, because that always helps diminish debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if ALS can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, ALS produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 51% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
ALS's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. On the other hand, its net debt to EBITDA makes us a little less comfortable about its debt. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about ALS's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for ALS that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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