It's been a pretty great week for Nick Scali Limited (ASX:NCK) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to AU$18.00 in the week since its latest half-yearly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of AU$251m and statutory earnings per share of AU$0.99 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Nick Scali is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Nick Scali

Following the latest results, Nick Scali's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$505.1m in 2025. This would be a notable 8.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$524.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.72 in 2025. Overall, while there's been a small dip in revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important following the latest results.

Additionally, the consensus price target for Nick Scali rose 6.1% to AU$16.73, showing a clear increase in optimism from the the analysts involved. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Nick Scali, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$19.50 and the most bearish at AU$14.50 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nick Scali's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Nick Scali's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 18% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Nick Scali is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their revenue estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

At least one of Nick Scali's seven analysts has provided estimates out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Nick Scali Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.