Investing.com -- KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Steel Dynamics Inc (NASDAQ:STLD) to "Overweight" from "Sector Weight" on improving operational performance at its Sinton facility and stronger steel pricing. The firm set a price target of $155, reflecting a nearly 20% total return, excluding potential share repurchases.
KeyBanc said Sinton facility, which had lost nearly $200 million in 2024, is showing signs of a turnaround due to improved upstream yields, lower maintenance costs, and increased production.
The firm highlighted STLD’s strong positioning to benefit from declining steel imports, particularly in galvanized sheet, as potential tariffs could support domestic pricing.
The bank raised its 2025 EBITDA estimate to $2.57 billion from $2.13 billion, factoring in Sinton’s recovery, higher hot-rolled coil prices, and stronger market share gains. For 2026, it expects EBITDA to reach $3.04 billion, driven by improved steel profitability and ramping aluminum operations.
STLD’s aluminum project is forecast to turn EBITDA-positive by year-end 2025 and reach 75% utilization in 2026. Meanwhile, Sinton is projected to achieve ~90% utilization in early 2025 and turn EBIT-positive before midyear.
KeyBanc’s bullish outlook comes amid a broader constructive view on U.S. steelmakers, as rising trade policy uncertainty and rebounding steel prices support near-term sentiment.
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