
Breakfast News: UPST Is Just Getting Started
February 12, 2025
Tuesday's Markets |
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S&P 500 6,069 (+0.03%) |
Nasdaq 19,644 (-0.36%) |
Dow 44,594 (+0.28%) |
Bitcoin $95,861 (-1.62%) |

Source: Image created by JesterAI.
1. Upstart Smashes Through Expectations
Upstart (UPST -5.08%) looks set to be one of Wednesday's biggest movers having soared 25% after hours, after beating fourth-quarter estimates. The AI-based lending platform operator saw Q4 revenue rocket 55% year over year, from a 68% jump in loan transactions. The business isn't quite into profit yet, but the quarter's $2.8 million net loss beats last year's $42.4 million loss.
- Ranked 9th for its ability to beat the market over the next 5 years across all Motley Fool recs: Guidance points to 2025 full-year revenue of $1 billion. The company expects to "at least" break even on GAAP profitability and hit $180 million in adjusted EBITDA.
- Both lenders and borrowers seem to like it: The Hidden Gems recommendation added 28 banks and credit unions to its platform in 2024, and saw its browser-to-buyer conversion rate jump to 19.3% from 11.6%.
2. Next Up: Cloud-Based Earnings
Paycom (PAYC -0.68%) and HubSpot (HUBS -2.62%) release Q4 updates after market close, with both on healthy track records of beating earnings estimates.
- Shares down 31% over 5 years: Paycom's human capital management (HCM) software technology helped the Stock Advisor rec to an 11% year-over-year revenue rise in Q3. Analysts expect full-year revenue of $2.07 billion. Growth in Canada and Mexico could point the way forward.
- Beating the S&P 500 by 879% since first recommended in Rule Breakers: Customer relationship management (CRM) provider HubSpot saw its customer base grow 23% year over year in Q3, beating estimates. The company switched to a seats-based pricing structure this year, and we wait for evidence of the benefits.
3. Baidu to Shake up AI?
Sources say Chinese tech giant Baidu (BIDU -4.70%) is set to release its next-generation AI in the second half of the year, hoping to extend the lower-cost approach raised by DeepSeek.
- Enhancements in multimodal capabilities: The new model, Ernie 5.0, is expected to include enhancements in combining texts, images, video, and audio.
- "Reduced by more than 90% over 12 months": At the World Governments Summit in Dubai this week, Baidu CEO Robin Li said he expects the cost of training AI models to fall dramatically. He also spoke of open-source development as a way to "spread the technology much faster," which could threaten proprietary models.
4. SoftBank in the Red
Japan-based SoftBank posted a surprise third-quarter loss of 369 billion yen ($2.4 billion) today, after its Vision Fund investments suffered a $2.3 billion dip. Analysts had expected a $1.5 billion profit.
- Stargate billions: It comes after founder and CEO Masayoshi Son appeared at January's Stargate launch and talked about investing up to $500 billion in the AI project.
- Questions over funding: Son says the company's future is in AI, as sources suggest he plans to invest as much as $25 billion in OpenAI. Time will tell if he has the cash for his ambitions. To learn more about Son's vision for the future of the world, check out this recent Motley Fool Money podcast.
5. Foolish Fun
In yesterday's Breakfast News, we asked you to think about a winner in your portfolio that was a microcap ($3 billion market capitalization or much less) when you first bought it. Today, debate with friends and family over the microcap you have the highest conviction in to beat the market across the next 5 years, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying.
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