Hospital company Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC is set to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 12, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.93 per share and $5.16 billion, respectively.

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The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 9.3%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 4%.

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For 2024, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tenet Healthcare’s revenues is pegged at $20.76 billion, implying a rise of 1% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for current year EPS is pegged at $11.37, implying a jump of around 62.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Tenet Healthcare beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 59.9%, as you can see below.

Tenet Healthcare’s Q4 Earnings Whispers

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for THC this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

THC has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Let’s see how things have shaped up before the fourth-quarter earnings announcement.

Q4 Factors to Note for Tenet Healthcare

With seniors continuing to resume elective procedures, Tenet Healthcare is expected to have witnessed higher admissions and occupancy rates in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for adjusted patient admissions in total hospital operations suggest 22.5% year-over-year growth. On the same hospital basis, the consensus estimate and our model estimate for adjusted patient admissions indicate a 28.7% increase from a year ago.

Meanwhile, the Ambulatory Care business is likely to have gained from better patient volumes, new service line growth and buyouts. Our model estimate for the Ambulatory Care segment’s operating revenues suggests 3.4% growth from the prior-year quarter’s figure, whereas the consensus estimate indicates a 4.7% increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted EBITDA from Ambulatory Care operations suggests 5.5% year-over-year growth.

Higher patient service revenues are likely to have provided a boost in the fourth quarter. Similarly, both the consensus estimate and our model estimate suggest fourth-quarter total hospital patient days to have increased 1.8% year over year. The above-mentioned factors are likely to have benefited THC’s results in the quarter under review, positioning its profits for year-over-year growth.

However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for hospital operations and other revenues for the fourth quarter is pegged at $4 billion, indicating a 6.9% decline from the year-ago period, which is likely to have led to a year-over-year decline in the top line. The consensus mark for net patient revenues per adjusted admission in total Hospital in the fourth quarter signals a 23.6% year-over-year decline.

Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for the average length of stay in total Hospital indicate a 3.7% decrease from a year ago. Also, with increased utilization, costs are expected to have increased in the fourth quarter, trimming margins and making an earnings beat uncertain.

How Did Other Stocks Perform?

Here are some stocks in the broader Medical space that have already reported earnings for this quarter: HCA Healthcare, Inc. HCA, The Ensign Group, Inc. ENSG and The Cigna Group CI.

HCA Healthcare reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.22, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.2% driven byhigher patient volumes giving rise to an increased number of inpatient surgeries and same-facility emergency room visits. However, the upside was partly offset by elevated salaries and benefits expenses. Additional expenses due to Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton also impacted the results.

Ensign reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $1.49, which outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4% thanks to improved occupancy rates, higher patient days and higher skilled service revenues. The positives were partly offset by an elevated expense level due to the higher cost of services and rents. 

Cigna reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of $6.64, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.2% due to a decline in its overall medical customer base and elevated medical costs. Nevertheless, the downside was partly offset by expanding specialty volumes in the Evernorth Health Services segment and new client wins.

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