The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (NYSE:RGA), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$22b revenue coming in 3.3% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.73 missed the mark badly, arriving some 21% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Reinsurance Group of America

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering Reinsurance Group of America, is for revenues of US$20.3b in 2025. This implies a definite 8.1% reduction in Reinsurance Group of America's revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 99% to US$21.71. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$22.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$22.28 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that sentiment has declined measurably after results came out, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a small dip in EPS estimates to boot.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$254, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Reinsurance Group of America's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Reinsurance Group of America at US$280 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$232. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Reinsurance Group of America is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Reinsurance Group of America is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Reinsurance Group of America. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$254, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Reinsurance Group of America going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Reinsurance Group of America that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.