Last week, you might have seen that Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to US$62.58 in the past week. Revenues were US$1.3b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.75 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 13%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Enphase Energy

Following the latest results, Enphase Energy's 33 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.55b in 2025. This would be a notable 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 130% to US$1.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.68b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.11 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

The consensus price target fell 7.2% to US$81.74, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Enphase Energy analyst has a price target of US$145 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$54.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 16% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 19% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 17% annually. It's clear that while Enphase Energy's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Enphase Energy going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Enphase Energy that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.