Vale S.A. VALE is expected to report declines in its bottom and top lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 19, after market close. 

Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale’s sales is pegged at $10.08 billion, indicating a 23% decrease from the year-ago quarter's figure. The consensus mark for earnings has moved down 13% over the past 60 days to 53 cents per share. The figure indicates a 5.4% year-over-year decline.

VALE’s Earnings Surprise History

VALE's earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in the other two, delivering an average negative surprise of 0.98%.

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Factors Likely to Have Shaped Vale's Q4 Performance

Vale recently provided its fourth-quarter production and sales update, which may show how it is likely to fare in the to-be-reported quarter. Iron ore production was around 85 Mt, down 4.6% year over year, reflecting the company’s portfolio optimization decision, which prioritizes the production of higher-margin products. Pellet production was down 7% year over year to 9.2 Mt. Iron production, however, was above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82.6 Mt. 

Iron ore fines sales declined 10% from the year-ago quarter to 69.9 Mt. Pellet sales were down 2% to around 10 Mt. Total iron ore sales were down 10% year over year to 81.2 Mt. The average realized iron ore fines price was $93 per ton in the quarter, down 21.4% year over year. Realized prices for iron ore pellets declined 12.5% to $143 per ton. 

Nickel sales were recorded at 47.1 kt, down 1.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The figure was higher than the consensus estimate of 45 kt. The average realized nickel price was $16,163 per ton, down 12% from the year-ago quarter. This was in line with the decrease in LME nickel reference prices. 

Vale sold 99 kt of copper in the fourth quarter, which was 1.5% higher than the prior-year quarter's figure. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 100 kt.

The average realized price for copper operations only (Salobo and Sossego) was $9,187 per ton, up 15.7% year over year. The average realized copper price for all operations (including copper sales originating from nickel operations) was $8,947 per ton.

Overall, Vale’s revenues are likely to have gained from higher sales volumes for copper and elevated copper prices compared with the year-ago quarter. This is expected to have been offset by lower sales volume and prices for iron ore and nickel.

The company has been facing higher input costs, particularly diesel and freight costs, in the past few quarters. This is likely to have weighed on its margins. However, cost-control efforts are expected to have negated some of this impact.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for VALE

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vale this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat but that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Vale is -14.69%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Vale currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

VALE Stock’s Price Performance

In a year, shares of Vale have lost 28.8% compared with the industry’s 28.5% decline.

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Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 18, has an Earnings ESP of +1.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.49 per share. It has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 10.3%.

Avient Corporation AVNT, ready to release earnings numbers on Feb. 13, currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AVNT’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 48 cents per share. It has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.4%.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2024 on Feb. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +17.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 23 cents per share. It has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 32.5%.

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VALE S.A. (VALE) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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