MW AMC poised for 'multiyear recovery' fueled by strong 2025 film slate, says analyst

By James Rogers

2024 was 'a year of surprising resilience' for the domestic box office, according to Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey

Movie-theater chain AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is well placed to benefit from a rebounding box office in 2025, according to analyst firm Benchmark.

"We believe AMC is positioned for a multiyear recovery, with 2025 likely to surpass 2024 driven by a strong film slate that includes 'Mission: Impossible 8,' 'Jurassic World 4' and 'Avatar 3,'" wrote Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey in a note.

Hickey described 2024 as "a year of surprising resilience" for the domestic box office, which delivered $8.56 billion in the year - down 3.9% from 2023 but still surpassing expectations, he noted. Benchmark estimates that the domestic box office will deliver $9.5 billion in 2025, marking an 11% increase from last year.

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In addition to "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning," "Jurassic World Rebirth" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash," other major releases in 2025 include director James Gunn's "Superman," Marvel's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps," "Wicked: For Good," Walt Disney Co.'s $(DIS)$ "Zootopia 2" and the live-action "Snow White," also from Disney. Other notable films this year include recently released horror film "Wolf Man," Marvel's "Thunberbolts," the live-action adaptation of "How to Train Your Dragon," the "John Wick" spinoff "Ballerina," and Warner Bros.' "Mickey 17," according to Benchmark.

AMC $(AMC)$ has certainly benefited from an improving box office, with the company citing record-breaking attendance over the Thanksgiving holiday. In November, it reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and also announced its "Go Plan," a major investment effort to boost the moviegoing experience at its theaters.

"The AMC Go Plan, which allocates $1.0 billion to $1.5 billion over the next four to seven years, represents a strategic investment in premium large-format screens, expanded laser projection, and upgraded seating to enhance the theatrical experience," wrote Benchmark's Hickey.

The analyst also pointed to the company's efforts to tap into additional sources of revenue. "We see AMC's efforts to diversify revenue streams, such as its expanding home popcorn business, alongside operational efficiencies, as key factors supporting long-term financial stability," he said.

Benchmark has a hold rating for AMC.

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Last month, AMC announced its latest equity raise. The company's chief executive, Adam Aron, subsequently took to social-media platform X to address angry shareholders over the sale of almost $184 million of stock.

As of the third quarter, AMC had long-term debt of approximately $4.5 billion following its debt-reduction efforts, according to Benchmark. Hickey also pointed to the company's move to push $2.4 billion of its long-term debt out from 2026 to 2029 and 2030. This, he added, reduces near-term refinancing risk.

AMC lowered its total debt by approximately $349 million in 2024 through buybacks and exchanges, according to Benchmark. "The company expects positive operating cash flow in Q4 2024 and continues to focus on liquidity management while balancing strategic investments," wrote Hickey.

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Shares of the movie-theater chain and original meme stock are down 31% in the last 12 months.

AMC reports fourth-quarter results after market close on Feb. 25.

-James Rogers

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February 10, 2025 15:31 ET (20:31 GMT)

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