Why Kraft Heinz Stock Went a Bit Sour Today

Motley Fool
02-13
  • Kraft Heinz reported a mixed Q4 with lower-than-expected revenue.
  • Management issued cautious guidance for the next fiscal year.
  • The stock currently trades at low earnings and offers a high dividend yield, but it's cheap for a reason.

Shares of food producer Kraft Heinz (KHC -3.67%) posted a significant price drop on Wednesday morning. A mixed fourth-quarter report left a bad taste in investors' mouths, and the stock opened 7.9% lower. It recovered to a 3.5% price drop as of 11 a.m. ET, but Kraft Heinz's stock is still exploring multiyear lows today.

Kraft Heinz's results by the numbers

The company behind popular food brands such as Oscar Mayer, Kool-Aid, and Velveeta saw fourth-quarter sales fall 5% year over year to $6.58 billion. Adjusted earnings rose by 8% to $0.84 per diluted share. The average Wall Street analyst was looking for earnings near $0.78 per share on revenues in the neighborhood of $6.7 billion. Kraft Heinz beat the bottom-line targets but fell short of revenue expectations.

Looking ahead, management set up disappointing guidance for fiscal year 2025. The company expects to generate full-year earnings of approximately $2.68 per share, 12% below last year's result and short of the consensus forecast at $3.04. This weak bottom-line forecast erased the price support Kraft Heinz might have enjoyed from the robust fourth-quarter showing.

Can the company cook up a comeback?

Kraft Heinz is hampered by unfavorable foreign currency trends, a price-sensitive consumer population, and rising ingredient costs. That's a troublesome combination, forcing Kraft Heinz to make uncomfortable pricing decisions. Profit-preserving price increases are likely to result in lower unit sales in this inflation-wary economy.

CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera is seeking new deals in sit-down restaurants and better distribution into emerging markets.

The stock trades at just 9.3 times adjusted earnings today, and the 5.6% dividend yield is one of the highest figures in the S&P 500 index. Kraft Heinz is a turnaround story in progress. If you expect its valuable brands and massive distribution network to win out in the long run, Kraft Heinz could be a great value investment right now.

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