Feb 13 (Reuters) - Unless stocks drop FX traders may continue to gamble and not turn to the safety of the dollar as is usual during risk-averse situations like a global trade dispute.
Stock markets are anything but risk-averse with widely followed indexes like MSCI's world index and the S&P 500 setting new record highs this year.
This may come as no surprise to investors who have got used to equities rallying during worrying periods, because almost every problem they have encountered since the global financial crisis in 2008 has been solved by spending and easier monetary policy.
The only problem that could not be solved in that fashion - inflation - merely slowed equities for a time, and one of the major issues currently in focus, namely China's economic slowdown, may be resolved by particularly huge spending.
If that happens much of the money injected into the economy will end up in the stock market which could balloon, supporting equities throughout the region and favouring companies of China's closer trading partners.
While the trade war is clearly a concern, it could be largely ignored if stocks rise further and should the U.S. economy suffer, the Federal Reserve may slash its interest rate too, adding fuel to the equity fire.
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MSCI World equity index and S&P 500 https://tmsnrt.rs/41dvAA0
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
((jeremy.boulton@thomsonreuters.com))
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