Investors in Barrick Gold Corporation (TSE:ABX) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.4% to close at CA$26.19 following the release of its full-year results. Barrick Gold missed revenue estimates by 2.2%, coming in atUS$13b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.22 beat expectations, coming in 6.8% ahead of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Barrick Gold

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Barrick Gold are now predicting revenues of US$13.5b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 29% to US$1.58. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$15.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.66 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has fallen somewhat in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a minor downgrade to earnings per share numbers as well.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CA$31.30 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Barrick Gold analyst has a price target of CA$38.51 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$26.78. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Barrick Gold's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Barrick Gold's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.7% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 15% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Barrick Gold is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Barrick Gold analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Barrick Gold you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.