It's been a good week for Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE:AR) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 5.3% to US$39.84. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$4.3b were what the analysts expected, Antero Resources surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.18 per share, an impressive 64% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Antero Resources

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Antero Resources' nine analysts is for revenues of US$5.44b in 2025. This reflects a major 27% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 1,435% to US$2.82. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.65 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target rose 7.7% to US$44.05, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Antero Resources at US$63.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$22.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Antero Resources' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Antero Resources' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 27% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Antero Resources to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Antero Resources' earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Antero Resources. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Antero Resources going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Antero Resources that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.