Investors in Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (NASDAQ:MCRI) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.5% to close at US$94.16 following the release of its full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$522m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Monarch Casino & Resort surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$4.96 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Monarch Casino & Resort after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Monarch Casino & Resort

Taking into account the latest results, Monarch Casino & Resort's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$531.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 2.4% to US$4.98 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$525.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.85 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 7.0% to US$91.80. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Monarch Casino & Resort, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$105 and the most bearish at US$82.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Monarch Casino & Resort is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Monarch Casino & Resort's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Monarch Casino & Resort.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Monarch Casino & Resort following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Monarch Casino & Resort's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Monarch Casino & Resort analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Monarch Casino & Resort that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.