EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX, stocks lower ahead of Trump's tariffs; Russia-Ukraine in focus

Reuters
02-13
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX, stocks lower ahead of Trump's tariffs; Russia-Ukraine in focus

Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs on the day

Brazil retail sales volumes fall in December

Ukraine, Russia assets rally on hopes of peace talks

Monetary policy decision due in Peru

By Purvi Agarwal

Feb 13 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies and stocks were lower on Thursday as investors exercised caution ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement, while also monitoring developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

MSCI's index tracking Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS was down 0.1%, while the stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS was off 0.2%.

Trump said he plans to unveil reciprocal tariffs on Thursday afternoon but gave no details about his latest plan, which could take aim at every country that charges duties on U.S. imports.

The Brazilian real BRL= dropped 0.2% against the dollar.

"To some extent, it could be the caution ahead of trump's reciprocal tariffs... it adds to a growth negative sentiment that could impact EM FX, especially in closed economies such as Brazil," said Gilberto Hernandez-Gomez, LatAm local market strategist and vice-president at BBVA.

Economists at Capital Economics said that EMs would suffer a greater loss of competitiveness, with India, Brazil and Turkey looking among the most exposed, and they could provide concessions to Trump in an attempt to prevent tariffs.

Separately, retail sales volumes in Brazil fell in December from the previous month, adding to signs the economy slowed at the end of last year.

"Brazil's key concern is their fiscal... if there are signs that the economy and growth are slowing, but inflation expectations are rising, that makes for a difficult fiscal situation," said Hernandez-Gomez.

Meanwhile, bonds in Ukraine broadly rallied over 1 cent each, while the Russian rouble hit its highest since September, after Trump's calls with the leaders of the countries led investors to hope for peace talks, that could end the years-long conflict.

However, Ukraine and its European allies demanded that they be included in any peace negotiations, with the European Union warning against a "dirty deal" on Ukraine.

A conclusion to the war is expected to lift sanctions on Russia, improving oil supply and lower prices globally.

An over 1% decline in oil prices impacted the currency of oil exporter Colombia, whose currency COP= fell 0.1%. The Mexican peso MXN= was off 0.1% while the Chilean peso CLP= was up 0.2%.

Peru's sol PEN= was little changed ahead of a local monetary policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady.

Regional bourses were mixed with Brazil' Bovespa .BVSP off 0.2% and Chile's IPSA .SPIPSA up 0.2%, while stocks in Mexico and Colombia were slightly higher.

Argentina's Merval .MERV was up 1.3%. A poll showed monthly inflation rate likely hit its lowest level since libertarian President Javier Milei came to power in late 2023.

Highlights:

** Brazil nixes BRICS currency, eyes less reliance on 'mighty' dollar

** Rwanda central bank holds policy rate for second meeting running

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies around 1515 GMT:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1112.67

0.15

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2060.38

-0.21

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

124126.89

-0.2

Mexico IPC .MXX

54083.37

0.03

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7300.02

0.24

Argentina Merval .MERV

2315500.89

1.30

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1532.55

0.08

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.7734

-0.15

Mexico peso MXN=

20.536

-0.11

Chile peso CLP=

948.31

0.17

Colombia peso COP=

4168.68

-0.12

Peru sol PEN=

3.714

0.03

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1056.5

0

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1205

1.24

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Alistair Bell)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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