EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX muted as investors brace for US tariffs; focus on Ukraine peace talks

Reuters
02-13
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX muted as investors brace for US tariffs; focus on Ukraine peace talks 

Brazil's services activity posts surprise drop in December

Israel calls up reservists as fears for Gaza ceasefire rise

Latam oil stocks fall tracking drop in crude prices

Mexico's Arca up after Q4 core earnings jump

MSCI Latam FX up 0.1%, stocks down 0.5%

Updates to mid-session trading

By Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Most major Latam currencies were subdued on Wednesday, as investors braced for U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff policy, while investors priced in an imminent end to Ukraine's nearly three-year conflict with Russia.

Days after announcing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on every country that charges duties on U.S. imports by Thursday.

MSCI's index tracking Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS inched up 0.1%, trading near a four-month high against a choppy U.S. dollar. Brazil's real BRL= and Peru's sol PEN= were also trading flat.

Mexico's peso MXN= was flat. The currency has witnessed significant volatility as investors priced in multiple tariff headlines out of the U.S., and is expected to remain under pressure until markets get more clarity on tariffs after March 1, when Trump's one-month reprieve for Mexico and Canada ends.

Elsewhere, Ukrainian dollar bonds XS2895057334=TE, UA289505733= edged up over 1 cent on the dollar.

Trump said he discussed the war in Ukraine in phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the new U.S. president's first big step towards diplomacy on a war he has promised to end.

Crude prices slid on expectations of a quicker end to the conflict, further pressuring oil exporter Colombia's peso COP= that depreciated 0.7% - on track for its third session of declines.

Meanwhile, copper producer Chile's peso CLP= firmed 1%, tracking higher prices of the red metal. Chile's central bank said that keeping the country's benchmark interest rate on hold at 5% was the only option considered by its board at its January meeting.

On the equities front, MSCI's stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS fell 0.5%, with heavyweight Brazil's Bovespa index .BVSP down 1.5%, dragged down by a 1.5% drop in energy company Petrobras PETR4.SA.

Brazil's central bank signaled caution beyond an expected March rate hike and said it would take time to confirm incoming data pointed to an economic slowdown.

Separately, data showed services activity in Brazil ended 2024 on a negative note, with the sector unexpectedly slipping in December as the local economy provides cooling signs.

"Going forward, we expect services activity to benefit from continued fiscal stimulus, generous increases in the minimum wage, and solid real household disposable income growth, mitigated by tight domestic monetary and financial conditions, high levels of household indebtedness, and low levels of economic slack," Goldman Sachs analysts said.

Colombia's COLCAP .COLCAP lost 0.4%, with oil company Ecopetrol ECO.CN down 1.7%.

Mexican stocks .MXX bucked the trend with a 1.2% rise. Bottler Arca Continental <AC.MX> added 5.5% after posting core earnings for the fourth quarter that jumped 42% from a year earlier, boosted by higher drink sales in the U.S..

Grupo Mexico GMEXICOB.MX lost 1.1% after the mining group reported a drop in its net profit during the fourth quarter.

Focus was also on developments in the Middle East as Israel called up military reservists to brace for a possible re-eruption of war in Gaza if Hamas fails to meet a Saturday deadline to free further Israeli hostages and a nearly month-old ceasefire unravels.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies 2021:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1111.33

0.61

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2068.88

-0.47

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

124649.93

-1.48

Mexico IPC .MXX

54103.05

1.22

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7282.34

0.06

Argentina Merval .MERV

2285846.47

0.54

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1528.89

-0.39

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.7597

0.07

Mexico peso MXN=

20.5297

0.05

Chile peso CLP=

949.88

1.04

Colombia peso COP=

4165.5

-0.72

Peru sol PEN=

3.715

-0.21

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1056.25

-0.05

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1200

1.23

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal in Bengaluru. Editing by Jane Merriman and Deepa Babington)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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