The third-quarter results for Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:OESX) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Statutory results overall were mixed, with revenues coming in 26% lower than the analysts predicted. What's really surprising is that losses of US$0.05 per share were pretty much in line with forecasts, despite the revenue miss. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Orion Energy Systems

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Orion Energy Systems' dual analysts is for revenues of US$92.6m in 2026. This reflects a notable 8.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 28% to US$0.16. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$115.3m and losses of US$0.17 per share in 2026. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated losses the business will incur.

The analysts have cut their price target 44% to US$2.50per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the forecast reduction in losses.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that Orion Energy Systems' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 6.9% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 11% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 8.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Orion Energy Systems' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Orion Energy Systems going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Orion Energy Systems has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.