Supermarket behemoth Walmart Inc. WMT is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings results on Feb. 2, 2025, before the opening bell. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and has an Earnings ESP of +2.15%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Our research shows that for stocks with the combination of a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better (Rank #1 or 2) and a positive Earnings ESP, the chance of an earnings beat is as high as 70%. These stocks are anticipated to appreciate after their earnings release. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Factors to Consider

Walmart has been gaining from its sturdy comp sales, driven by its constant expansion efforts and splendid e-commerce performance. WMT has been strengthening its physical fleet, which plays a dual role of catering to customers directly and fulfilling a considerable chunk of the company’s e-commerce sales. 

Walmart has been focused on store remodeling in an attempt to upgrade them with advanced in-store and digital innovation. Additionally, the company has been undertaking several efforts to enhance merchandise assortments.
WMT continues to be driven by its strong omnichannel business. From investing in pioneering data analytics to expanding its digital presence and optimizing in-store operations, Walmart leaves no stone unturned. 

Impressive store proximity to customers has allowed Walmart to use its stores to fulfill e-commerce orders. WMT has undertaken several initiatives to enhance e-commerce operations, including buyouts, alliances, and improved delivery and payment systems. The company is facing increasing competition from global e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. AMZN. 

Strong Earnings Estimate Revisions for WMT Stock

For first-quarter fiscal 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently shows revenues of $179.18 billion, suggesting an improvement of 3.3% year over year and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.64, indicating an increase of 6.7% year over year. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings remained same over the last 60 days. WMT reported positive earnings surprises in the last four reported quarters with an average beat of 9.3%.

At present, the Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year increase of 4.7% and 11.7%, respectively, for revenues and EPS in fiscal 2025 (ending January 2025). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings has improved 0.4% over the last 30 days.

Even after this upward revision, the current Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 (ending January 2026) revenues and EPS reflects an upside of 3.8% and 10.7%, respectively. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings has improved 0.4% over the last 60 days. 

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Future Catalysts

Walmart has been innovating in the supply chain and adding capacity as well as building businesses such as Walmart GoLocal, Walmart Connect, Walmart Luminate, Walmart+ and Walmart Fulfillment Services. Other notable strides in the e-commerce realm include the buyout of a major stake in India’s Flipkart, which has been bolstering its International segment. 

Walmart’s majority stake in India’s digital transaction platform, PhonePe, is also worth mentioning. Additionally, WMT has made aggressive efforts to expand in the booming online grocery space, which has long been a major contributor to e-commerce sales.

Walmart has significantly bolstered its delivery capabilities, as exemplified by its Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery service, Spark Driver platform, partnership with Salesforce, the expansion of the InHome delivery service, investments in DroneUp, the Walmart+ membership program and a pilot with Cruise to test grocery delivery through self-driven all-electric cars. 

Preceding these endeavors, Walmart introduced Express Delivery in April 2021, and in January 2019, it forged partnerships with Point Pickup, Skipcart, AxleHire and Roadie. Additionally, the acquisition of Parcel in September 2017 was a strategic move to elevate its delivery service.

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Investment Thesis

Walmart has a return on equity of 21.78% compared with 12.15% of the industry and 16.94% of the S&P 500 Index. Walmart’s healthy cash flows have been allowing it to make shareholder-friendly moves. In the first nine months of 2024, it generated an operating cash flow of $22.9 billion and a free cash flow of $6.2 billion. 

Walmart repurchased 46 million shares for $3 billion in the first nine months of 2024 while making regular dividend payments. The company had $13.5 billion remaining under its share buyback plan. Its current dividend yield is 0.8%. 

Year to date, the stock priced has appreciated 15.2% compared with 3.9% of the S&P 500. Despite its overstretched valuation, WMT’s favorable Zacks Rank along with possible earnings beat, should drive its stock price in the near future.

The chart below shows the price performance of WMT year to date.

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