Intel Stock Surges 16%. Why There Are Obstacles to a TSMC-Broadcom Carve-Up

Dow Jones
02-19

Intel stock rose Tuesday as speculation mounts about deals to acquire different parts of the chip company. However, there are major hurdles for a reported potential split of the company's operations between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Broadcom.

An Intel split has looked to be on the table ever since the departure of previous CEO Pat Gelsinger, whose strategy was to keep the company as an integrated chip design-and-manufacturing company, and expand services to third parties.

Ultimately that plan proved to be too slow in producing results, and now reports contemplate the breakup of the company. While its chip-design, or Product arm, has plenty of suitors, the trickier issue is Intel Foundry, which manufactures chips for other companies.

"Separating Foundry & Product should be the easiest option for management assuming the Foundry business can either be capitalized or has a buyer," wrote Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri in a research note. He rates Intel stock at Market Perform without a target price.

The latest report over the weekend was that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSMC) is being lined up by the White House to take control over some or all of Intel's manufacturing operations, while Broadcom is interested in its Product business, according to The Wall Street Journal. TSMC declined to comment on the report, while Intel and Broadcom didn't respond to requests for comment.

Intel shares were up 16% Tuesday, after markets were closed Monday for Presidents Day.

By far the more difficult part of the deal is TSMC's potential role. While the Taiwanese company is arguably the only option with the expertise to handle advanced chip-manufacturing at scale, the prospect of a foreign company operating Intel's sites is likely to raise serious political concerns in both the U.S. and Taiwan.

That's before even entering the financial side of things. TSMC is already pouring billions of dollars into building U.S. manufacturing sites, and might not be keen on taking on additional higher costs for what is currently a lossmaking Foundry operation. Meanwhile, Intel has repeatedly claimed that its 18A process is poised to give it a technological lead in chip manufacturing from this year, and shareholders might oppose any deal that forces it to sell off that technology at a perceived knockdown price.

One potential solution could be a joint venture with TSMC taking a stake in a spun off Intel Foundry operation alongside a consortium of U.S. chip makers.

"We think committing to expanding its own U.S. footprint will likely be the preferable option for TSM management vs acquiring/running Intel fabs, " wrote Pajjuri.

Comparatively, Broadcom's reported interest in Intel's chip-design and marketing division is straightforward. Broadcom has a record of successful acquisitions under CEO Hock Tan, and without the drag of the manufacturing operations, could aim to cut costs and leverage Intel's strength in central-processing units alongside its own advances in custom artificial-intelligence chips.

However, Broadcom's hopes of buying Intel's chip-design arm could face antitrust concerns and competition from peers such as Qualcomm or Arm Holdings.

"Any deal will have to be blessed by the U.S. government with assurances of help on the regulatory front," Pajjuri wrote.

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