• Super Micro Computer stock surged 10% on Tuesday, leading the S&P 500 with a 72.3% YTD gain.
• The company gave a bullish outlook for its coming year on its earnings call last week.
• Investor excitement is growing for Nvidia's Blackwell GPU, which is crucial for Super Micro's revenue.

The move: Super Micro Computer stock jumped 10% on Tuesday, extending its one-week gain to 36% and its year-to-date gain to 72.3%, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 so far this year.

The chart:

Why: The gains in Super Micro Computer are an extension of the company's earnings report released last week. While the earnings report missed analyst's profit and revenue estimates, management offered a bullish outlook for its upcoming fiscal year 2026.

Perhaps more importantly, management said it intended to file its delayed financial reports for 2024 and quarterly reports ended September 2024 and December 2024 by February 25.

The stock cratered more than 80% from its record high last year after it was plagued with accounting problems and its auditor resigned. Super Micro appears on the verge of resolving that issue.

What it means: The rally in Super Micro computer stock may be a harbinger of fresh enthusiasm for the AI trade.

The surge in the shares in the last week coincides with building investor excitement for the wide release of Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell GPU chip.

Super Micro derives the bulk of its revenue from selling server racks that integrate GPU chips from Nvidia, so the company's bullish outlook for its upcoming fiscal year bodes well for a strong release of Nvidia's Blackwell.

"Highlighted by the beginning of our transition from Hopper to Blackwell GPUs, we expect the growth in new generation platforms to accelerate as supply ramps this quarter and beyond," Super Micro Computer CEO and founder Charles Liang said during the company's earnings call.

"We have confidence that our calendar year 2025 growth could be a repeat of calendar year 2023 if not better, assuming the supply chain can keep pace with demand," Liang said.

What the pros are saying: Analysts at JPMorgan said Super Micro Computer's latest earnings report "rekindles hopes for AI comeback" and that they were encouraged by the company's full-year guidance.

"Super Micro surprised many with an updated full-year guide, which implied a strong revenue inflection in F4Q25 (Jun-end), which the company expects will be the start of a robust AI server revenue cycle, which is leading the company to guide to a +$14 bn or 60%+ increase in revenue to $40 bn in FY26," JPMorgan said.

But the bank said it is taking a wait-and-see approach and cautioned investors that Super Micro's guidance may be too optimistic.

"While the updated outlook for F4Q25 and FY26 is well above JPM and consensus, and presents a nice upside surprise in what appeared to be an otherwise challenging near-term backdrop for supply/demand, we believe it is likely too early to underwrite such a positive outlook," JPMorgan said.