UBS cites investor sentiment, while Goldman cites central bank demand in new gold forecasts

Gold has been outperforming other assets in 2025.

UBS strategist Joni Teves is breaking her own rules — so are strategists at Goldman Sachs.

“It is always tricky to chase the market higher and uncomfortable when everyone seems to be on the same side of the trade. But it also does not make sense to call for the end of gold’s bull run simply because it has reached yet another record and has already rallied ~10% YTD,” she told clients as she lifted her year-end gold target to $2,900 from $2,800 and also increased her end-2026 target to $2,900 from $2,850.

Separately, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Lina Thomas lifted their year-end target price to $3,100 from $2,890.

Gold futures on Tuesday rose 1% to $2,923.80 an ounce, in a year in which the yellow metal has outperformed U.S. stocks, bonds, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

Teves says gold could reach $3,200 later this year.

Why? “We think strong positive investor sentiment given high levels of macro uncertainty coupled with a continued lack of positioning implies plenty of room for gold holdings to rise. This in turn should push prices higher,” she said.

Official purchases will keep the market well supported, she adds. And liquidity issues are going to amplify price action, highlighted by the lack of liquidity in London.

The new forecasts suggest that gold will settle at a price of $2,500 in the latter part of a five-year forecast, which takes into account that production costs and capital expenditure remain elevated.

“For investors who are concerned about long-term themes such as fiat currency debasement, further deterioration in the U.S. fiscal deficit, and geopolitical/sanctions risks, gold should continue to attract interest as an alternative asset to include in the mix. We think the price forecast profile looks reasonable, given how gold has behaved in the past, effectively rebasing at a higher level after each multi-year bull-run,” she says.

Teves did keep silver forecasts unchanged, at $35.40 an ounce by the end of the year, but the white metal could outperform gold if signs of weaker growth triggers a dovish response from the Fed, she said.

Gold could reach as high as $3,300 per ounce, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

The Goldman team made similar arguments to UBS on gold, putting an emphasis on structurally higher central bank demand, which they say will add 9% to the gold price by the end of the year.

If policy uncertainty stays high, the Goldman team say gold prices could reach as high as $3,300.