The likelihood of the United States adopting Ripple‘s XRP/USD as a national reserve asset in 2025 remains low, according to Polymarket, despite renewed speculation following Donald Trump's recent social media post about XRP.

What Happened: Traders assign only a 15 percent chance to the possibility, even though the President shared an article on Truth Social that detailed Ripple's expanding business activity in the U.S. after his election victory, fueling excitement among the XRP community.

The article, originally published by CoinDesk in January, highlighted how Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse saw an increase in deals and hiring efforts following Trump's return to power.

While this suggests a more favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies under a Trump administration, there is no clear indication that XRP will be integrated into U.S. financial reserves.

Trump's post immediately sparked speculation, with some XRP supporters interpreting it as a signal of potential government support.

However, Polymarket data suggests traders remain skeptical. The market currently estimates only a 15 percent probability that XRP will be included in the U.S. national reserve by the end of 2025.

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Why It Matters: This sentiment reflects broader uncertainty about Washington's approach to cryptocurrencies.

While Trump's previous administration maintained a relatively open stance toward digital assets, there has been no official indication that XRP is being considered for a role in the country's financial reserves.

Several key reasons contribute to the market's doubts about XRP's adoption as a national reserve asset:

• Ongoing regulatory uncertainty, particularly with the unresolved legal issues surrounding the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple.
• The U.S. government's existing reserve strategy, which prioritizes gold and U.S. Treasuries over digital assets.
• The presence of competing cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which would likely be favored over XRP.

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Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.