The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (NYSE:MD) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Pediatrix Medical Group
As you can see below, Pediatrix Medical Group had US$626.7m of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had US$220.5m in cash, and so its net debt is US$406.3m.
According to the last reported balance sheet, Pediatrix Medical Group had liabilities of US$373.1m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$971.3m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$220.5m as well as receivables valued at US$288.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$835.8m.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$1.19b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Pediatrix Medical Group has net debt worth 2.0 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 4.6 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Unfortunately, Pediatrix Medical Group saw its EBIT slide 5.6% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Pediatrix Medical Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Pediatrix Medical Group recorded free cash flow worth 61% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Neither Pediatrix Medical Group's ability to handle its total liabilities nor its EBIT growth rate gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But it seems to be able to convert EBIT to free cash flow without much trouble. It's also worth noting that Pediatrix Medical Group is in the Healthcare industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that Pediatrix Medical Group is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Pediatrix Medical Group you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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