Newmont Corporation NEM is slated to come up with fourth-quarter 2024 results after the closing bell on Feb. 20. 

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NEM beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the trailing four quarters while missed twice. In this timeframe, it delivered an earnings surprise of 22.2%, on average. It posted a negative earnings surprise of 2.4% in the last reported quarter. Newmont is expected to have benefited from higher gold prices and strong production volumes in the fourth quarter.

NEM’s shares have rallied 39.2% over a year compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 50.2% rise.

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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Our Model Unveils for NEM Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Newmont this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NEM is +6.44%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 95 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: NEM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

What do NEM’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues for Newmont for the to-be-reported quarter stands at $4,881 million, reflecting a rise of around 23.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Factors to Watch For NEM Stock

Newmont’s fourth-quarter results are likely to have been supported by higher year-over-year production, driven by continued strong performance from its managed Tier 1 portfolio. Production is expected to have been supported by higher grades at Penasquito and Tanami, higher production from Ahafo and strong production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. Our estimate for NEM’s attributable gold production is pegged at 1.8 million ounces for the December quarter, suggesting an 8.1% sequential rise.

The impact of higher gold prices is also expected to reflect on Newmont’s results in the to-be-reported quarter. Higher realized gold prices coupled with improved production are expected to have driven its top line.

Gold has been among the best-performing assets in 2024. Gold prices rallied roughly 27% last year, driven by strong demand from central banks, monetary easing in the United States, global uncertainties and a surge in safe-haven demand thanks to increased tensions in the Middle East and Russia. The strength in gold prices is expected to reflect on NEM’s profitability and cash flows in the fourth quarter.  Our estimate for average realized prices of gold for NEM stands at $2,652 per ounce, which indicates a sequential rise of 5.3%.

Newmont is also expected to have benefited from lower unit costs from higher production volumes in the quarter to be reported. NEM, on its third-quarter call, said that it expects fourth-quarter costs applicable to sales to be $1,050 per ounce, with all-in-sustaining costs of $1,475 per ounce, reflecting a decline on a sequential comparison basis.

Newmont Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Newmont Corporation price-eps-surprise | Newmont Corporation Quote

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, slated to release earnings on Feb. 19, has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus mark for CF’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.49.

Nutrien Ltd. NTR, slated to release earnings on Feb. 19, has an Earnings ESP of +7.51% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

The consensus mark for NTR’s fourth-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 33 cents.

Pan American Silver Corp. PAAS, scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 19, has an Earnings ESP of +0.15%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pan American Silver’s earnings for the fourth quarter is currently pegged at 35 cents. PAAS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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Newmont Corporation (NEM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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